Bashar, You're Wrong

There is an evil omen. If the U.S. diplomatic offices begin to evacuate their staff hastily, then a big commotion is to be expected in their respective counties of residence. Washington’s intention of becoming involved directly in these events can’t be denied.

On Tuesday, it became known that the majority of U.S. embassy employees as well as members of their families in Syria would be evacuated. Only those Americans who are on duty and should support the activities of their diplomatic missions in the so-called “frozen condition” are staying. Officials from the U.S. State Department explain their decision evasively, saying it is due to “the unstable situation in Syria.” It is obvious that this is just an excuse. In spite of unrest in the south, the situation in Damascus remains stable.

Why are the U.S. diplomats fleeing? There is no precise answer to this question, but a number of versions are rife. First, we can assume that something about the plans of current President Bashar Assad’s rivals became known to the U.S. State Department. And these are not peaceful plans that make the employees of the Foreign Ministry take preventive measures. Israel’s Mossad or the Jordanian secret services could have been the source of such information.

Another excuse for a hasty departure is the decision of the U.S. administration against the Assad regime. The White House announced the possibility of imposing sanctions on members of the Syrian government. In particular, it is planning to freeze their accounts in American banks to prevent them from cooperating with U.S. companies. There are no talks of sanctions to be imposed on Assad himself. But this does not mean that the question concerning the sanctions will not be raised in a few days, when the evacuation of the American personnel from Syria is completed. In Washington, they have grounds to believe that sanctions may anger the Syrians and cause demonstrations by the walls of the American Embassy. If this happens, there will be a minimum of personnel left at the embassy by that time.

Thirdly, it would seem that the least plausible version is the willingness of the U.S. administration to apply “disciplinary” measures, similar to those the international coalition is using in Libya, to Damascus in the future. All the more so, there is a formal pretext for military operations with the involvement of international forces against Assad, who brought armored vehicles into the streets of several cities and uses the army to disperse demonstrators. The number of people killed during demonstrations in Syria accounts to hundreds and there is no end to the violence in sight. Cosmetic reforms, which the Syrian leader resorted to, haven’t reduced tensions in the country and, indeed, remained unnoticed by the opponents of the regime.

However, once the revolutionary genie was released from his bottle in the North African countries, the West began to notice anxiously that he (the genie) is out of control and now responds to quite different and strange democratic masters. And, they are not able to drive him back into his old bottle. So now, many regimes in the Arab world are forced to seek another “vessel,” where the notorious genie might find a new refuge.

Radical Islamist movements in Syria, and earlier in Bahrain, quickly followed the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions. Now, under the pretext of the need for new reforms, they rush to power, mobilizing, after Friday prayers, tens of thousands of supporters. But, if at the initial stage of the revolutionary events Europe was enthusiastic about trying “the stencils of democracy” on any protest, now it’s time to sober up. Many of the western leaders realized that the double standard policy in the Arab world looked much more realistic than thoughtlessly supporting all nascent revolutions in the region.

The only question is whether there is enough wisdom in the White House to convince the American public of the need for a new course. Judging by the recent events in Syria, politicians in Washington are torn between considerations of expediency that involve the utmost restraint on the regime of Bashar Assad and democratic populism that requires an immediate response to the crackdown in Syria.

In the conditions of the U.S. presidential campaign, it will become clear what point of view prevails in coming days. So far, judging by the large-scale exodus of American diplomats from Damascus, a point of view of the populists, who are ready to wave the Damascus sword right and left for the sake of revolutionary ideals, wins, even if they are in the green colors of militant Islam.