U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy Will Not Change

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 2 May 2011
by Wei LI (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Michelle Deeter. Edited by Heidi Kaufmann.
Osama bin Laden’s death caused a sensation around the world. After President Barack Obama gave a speech confirming bin Laden’s death, Americans took to the streets and celebrated, especially near the White House. From this perspective, bin Laden’s death is an extraordinary performance according to the American people and the Obama administration. Moreover, it is a huge comfort to the American people. For this reason, Obama frequently emphasized that the attacks on Sept. 11 created a time of grief for many families. Therefore, ever since Sept. 11, 2001, killing bin Laden has always been an important goal for the U.S.

When the fight originated against al-Qaida, the American government had two main goals: first, to capture and kill bin Laden; second, to destroy al-Qaida’s network. Nearly 10 years after Sept. 11, 2001, the first goal was accomplished. But the American government still has a long way to go before it reaches its second goal. In this view, killing bin Laden is extremely good news for the American people and the government. This is especially important since the U.S. is holding general elections next year. Obama’s approval ratings were consistently dropping recently, but the death of bin Laden has greatly boosted Obama’s approval ratings.

This is just one aspect. There is another aspect that we need to consider more objectively. Killing bin Laden is America’s way of proving once again that it is a great country, or rather, a vindictive country. In other words, no one can violate America’s interests, whether an organization or a country.

From this other perspective we see that America has been fighting terrorism for the past 10 years, but not only has it not achieved its second goal (destroying al-Qaida’s network), but the al-Qaida network has been expanding. This touches upon an important question: How much influence does killing bin Laden have on America’s counterterrorism strategy? An explanation is in order.

As the mastermind of terrorist activities, bin Laden has already accomplished his mission. The Sept. 11 attacks were a symbolic event. Later, bin Laden used videos, recordings and speeches to say that even though his real significance had declined, his spiritual significance as a symbol was much more important. Therefore, bin Laden believed that he was more important dead than alive.

America has pursued counterterrorism strategies for 10 years, and support for al-Qaida’s activities has extended from Southern Asia to four regions, including Southern Asia, Iraq, the Arabian peninsula (mainly Yemen), Northern Africa and Somalia. It seems that America’s mission to destroy al-Qaida’s network remains incapable of being accomplished. Furthermore, it has been bogged down by war in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, the forces fighting against NATO are not al-Qaida but the Taliban. In Pakistan, the Taliban’s threat to the country is probably just as strong as al-Qaida’s threat to America and the West.

We have also seen that recently, America’s most wanted terrorist has changed from bin Laden to an American terrorist, a man hiding in Yemen named Anwar al-Awlaki. America already assessed that this man’s threat to America surpassed that of Osama bin Laden. Therefore, from last year until the beginning of this year, there have been a few terrorist threats, including the Christmas bomb threat and a few bomb threats at Times Square in New York. These threats are not planned or organized by bin Laden, but by a man closely related to the U.S. — Anwar al-Awlaki (an American citizen). Awlaki has planned these events in Yemen, working with a terrorist group related to al-Qaida. America is also offering a reward for another threat, a man in Pakistan who leads the Islam Jihad Union, whose name is Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri. His reward is just as high as bin Laden’s reward was. Therefore, when we consider these facts, it is clear that bin Laden’s death is not going to cause any great changes or adjustments in America’s counterterrorism strategy. That’s because in America, the threat of terrorism is not decreasing but gradually increasing, whether on its own soil or abroad.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano both mentioned that the threat of terrorism on American soil is constantly rising. For this reason, the U.S. especially adjusted its terrorism threat level warning system. It originally had five terror-alert levels; now it has been changed to two alert levels. In this way, the system is more practical and effective. It has also shown that the threat of terrorism against the U.S. — whether on American soil or abroad — has never lowered. For this reason, America will never be able to change its counterterrorism strategy.


本拉登被击毙以后,在全球引起了很大的轰动,特别是在奥巴马发表讲话证实本拉登确实被击毙以后,美国民众纷纷走上街头,特别是到白宫前进行庆贺。从这一点上来说,我们认为,本拉登被击毙对于美国民众、包括对奥巴马政府来说,都是一个极为加分的表现,而且特别是对美国民众的心理和情绪是一个极大的抚慰。所以我们看到奥巴马在讲话中,他反复强调说,“911”袭击对众多平民他们的家人造成了深切的苦难。从这一点看,击毙本拉登一直是美国“911”以后追求的一个很重要的目标。


  当初打击基地组织时,美国政府提出了两点目标:一是抓获和击毙本拉登,二是摧毁基地组织的网络。当前我们看到,它的第一个目标在“911”将近10周年之际完成了,但第二个目标依然是任重道远。所以从这一点来说,击毙本拉登对美国民众和政府来说都是极大的好消息。特别是美国明年要进行大选,这对近来民意调查支持率一直下降的奥巴马政府,也是一剂强心剂。其民众支持率会有所上升。


  这是一个方面。另一个方面,我们更客观来看,击毙本拉登是美国要体现它是一个伟大的国家或者说是一个有仇必报的国家的又一次明证。就是说,无论是什么组织甚至是国家,都不能触犯美国的国家利益。


  从第二点来看,美国反恐持续了将近10周年,我们看到,它的第二个目标(摧毁“基地”网络)不仅没有实现,反而基地网络仍然不断扩大,这就涉及到击毙本拉登对美国的反恐战略到底会有什么影响。这里有几个方面需要说明:


  作为恐怖活动的一个头目,本拉登的使命已经完成了。“911”袭击是一个标志性事件。此后,本拉登通过视频、录音的讲话表明,他在实际上的意义已经失去,而更重要的是精神层面的一个象征。所以,本拉登原来有一句话,他认为,他是“死了比活着还重要”。


  美国经历十年反恐后,基地活动的支撑点由原来的南亚扩展到四个,包括南亚、伊拉克、阿拉伯半岛(主要是也门)、北非和索马里。从这一点来看,美国摧毁基地网络的使命依然没有能够完成。另外,它也深陷阿富汗的战争。在那里,对北约部队构成的并不是基地,而是阿富汗的塔利班。在巴基斯坦,塔利班构成的威胁可能不亚于基地对美国和西方构成的威胁。


  我们也看到,前一段时间,美国把它的头号敌人由本拉登转为美国籍的恐怖分子——目前藏身于也门的恐怖分子安瓦尔•奥拉基。这个人对美国的威胁,美国自己评估认为,已经超过了本拉登。所以我们看到去年底到今年初对美国的一些恐怖威胁,包括圣诞炸机未遂、纽约时代广场的一些炸弹袭击,并不是来自于本拉登的策划组织,而是与美国关系最为密切的安瓦尔•奥拉基在基地也门的分支所策划的。


  美国还悬赏另外一个它的主要威胁,在巴基斯坦的“伊斯兰圣战联盟”的一个头目,叫做克什米利。他的悬赏金额也不低于本拉登的悬赏金额。所以从这几个方面分析,本拉登被打死并不能使美国的反恐战略有一个大的调整和变化。因为对美国来说,无论是本土的还是国际上的恐怖威胁,都没有减小而是逐渐上升。


  我们知道,前不久美国国务卿希拉里、国土安全部部长都提到,美国本土面临的恐怖威胁在不断上升。为此美国还专门调整了其恐怖威胁预警级别方式,由原来的五级预警改为两级预警,预警体系变得更为切实和更具有可操作性了。这也反映美国无论是在本土还是在国际上所面临的恐怖威胁一直没有下降。因此美国也就不可能调整或改变它的反恐战略。
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