Will U.S. Support for Philippines Replace Support for Japan in Containing China?

According to the Global Times report, the Philippines’ Malaya website quoted authorities on April 29 that the United States would probably assist the Philippines in containing China in Asia, since Japan was busy enough with its own affairs after the huge earthquake and tsunami. The news also claimed that the U.S. would continue supporting Filipino army building, strengthening its coastal monitoring capability. At the same time, helicopters and ships bought from the U.S. will be transported to the Philippines before the rainy season. However, some experts worried that such action might cause a military conflict between China and the Philippines regarding the sovereignty issue in the South China Sea.

According to the source, since Japan has been busy with local relief work after the March 11 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis, the U.S. intends to use the Philippines to fill the gap so as to maintain security and stability in Asia. At the same time, with the expression of concern about China’s increasing power in the Asia-Pacific region, this source pointed out that the U.S. regarded the Philippines as a long-term trustworthy ally; in addition, the blank left by Japan’s disaster and weakening power will be filled by the Philippines.

The source also stated that the policy of U.S.-Filipino cooperation included vigorous promotion of the ongoing modernization of the Filipino armed forces. He also claimed that the Philippines’ coastal monitoring is the most important thing and added that it was necessary to deliver the helicopters and ships bought from the U.S. before the rainy season. In related news, Victor Manhit, the head of the Filipino consulting firm StratBase in Manila, wrote an article on April 17 claiming that from a regional perspective, this action could possibly lead to a military conflict between China and the Philippines on the issue of the South China Sea’s sovereignty.

Manhit stated that China had a dispute with neighbor countries on the issue of South China Sea sovereignty. China’s naval vessels have interfered with the Philippines’ oil and gas exploration ship in the offshore area of the Philippines’ Forum Energy PLC. The ability of the armed forces to protect their coastal area and airspace is the most indispensible capability to the Philippines. Filipino president Aquino admitted the fact and tried to satisfy the demand.

Ernie Z. Bower, a senior consultant in Southeast Asia and director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, pointed out that the Philippines’ military modernization was a “double effort” in both acquiring modern equipment and solving military corruption. Manhit claimed that President Aquino perhaps was the best hope for realizing the two fundamental goals. He also wrote that Navy ships and vessels and air force helicopters would be deployed in Palawan and Sulu Island. The Filipino ground force would get rifles; the navy would probably get more multi-purpose attackers. In addition, the navy would also be expected to get a patrol boat of “Hamilton” level. At the same time, Walter Lohman, the director of U.S. Heritage Foundation Asian Studies Center, held that America’s move to constantly put the Philippines in a “high priority” position indicates that the U.S. already sees the Philippines as an “ally and safe partner.”

As to Obama’s appointment of incumbent CIA director Leon Panetta to succeed Robert Gates as the new Secretary of Defense and nomination of David Petraeus, current U.S. commander in Afghanistan, to assume the directorship of the CIA, Lohman expressed his hope that the policy matters (i.e. bilateral anti-terrorist cooperation) between the Philippines and the U.S. could maintain continuity and the U.S. could keep putting the Philippines in the high priority position of an ally and safe partner.

Apart from that, U.S. senators Daniel Inouye and Thad Cochran recently have visited the Philippines’ capital, Manila, quite often, which gradually convinced outsiders that their visits were related to Washington’s plan of reopening the Subic Bay Military Base. Between the years of 1898-1991, that area was an important base for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. However, the spokesperson of the U.S. Embassy in the Philippines, Rebecca Thompson, announced that the two senators’ visit to Subic was to see the economic development there in person and inquire how America can develop the cooperation related projects.