Post-bin Laden U.S. Foreign Policy

What will change in American foreign policy with the death of Osama bin Laden? Recently, this question occupies many analysts. For some, the resilience of the military-industrial complex of the United States will avoid sudden braking from happening in the wars in which Washington is locked in around the world. Principally, it should not change the pace of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan too much. For others, the death of Bin Laden — found on Pakistani soil, in a place distant from the Afghanistan border, it should be remembered — leaves the United States without much justification to maintain its nation building project in the country of the Taliban. The two most respected American legislators, when it comes to foreign policy — senators Democrat John Kerry and Republican Dick Lugar — have argued publicly that the enormous contingents of Americans in Afghanistan no longer make much sense.

Rheva Balla, director of research of the respected consulting firm of geopolitical risk Stratfor, thinks that the death of Osama bin Laden will lead to an acceleration of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and, still more importantly, a change in the focus of the U.S. foreign policy, with greater attention on the rise of China. “The United States is reorganizing the priorities in its foreign policy portfolio, and the war in Afghanistan will not be within these strategic priorities,” Rheva told me. “Let us return our attention towards the countries who took advantage of our preoccupation with the Islamic world in the last decade such as China, Russia and Iran.”

She recalls that while the United States was occupied with the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and the turbulence in the Middle East, the rest of the world kept going. Russia re-consolidated its influence in its periphery of the ex-Soviet republics, China is undermining U.S. power in the Pacific and Iran is preparing itself for the power vacuum in Iraq.

“It will take some time, because there are economic problems for the United States to fix at home, but the issue of the end of the war will gain force throughout the year. Already we see China, Russia and Iran recalculating their strategies to the extent that the United States will begin to liberate its abilities to deal with other questions,” she says.

The more immediate question, for Rheva, will be the containment of Iran and how to deal with the effects of the Arab Spring. The United States will need to seek alternatives to current regimes and contingency plans. Russia, which is advancing in places such as Ukraine and Central Asia, has put all the European countries on guard, and has greatly increased its energy leverage, and will also gain greater attention. “It is necessary to counter this Russian resurgence by coming back to support allies such as Poland, Romania, Turkey and Georgia,” she says.

China, obviously, was a significant strategic focus of the United States before Sept. 11 and naturally the emphasis now returns. “The United Staes is already trying to reinforce its alliances with Japan and the countries of Southeast Asia to create a political containment in the Pacific region.”

Still, Latin America, fortunately or unfortunately, continues to be at the bottom of the list of priorities of the United States, says Rheva. With or without bin Laden, the region will continue to be overlooked, despite the ascension — peacefully, and worth highlighting — of Brazil.