Will Bid Laden’s Death Make America Revise the Afghanistan War?

The death of bin Laden has made an already troublesome problem even more complicated: How will America extricate itself from its decade-long involvement in Afghanistan?

White House press secretary Jay Carney said that the death of bin Laden would not change U.S. strategy in Afghanistan. The Washington Post and Pew Research Center conducted a public opinion survey that revealed that the death of bin Laden had no remarkable impression on the American public’s outlook on withdrawing troops from Afghanistan.

The symbolic reason for the United States’ remaining in Afghanistan — removing Bin Laden, and thus getting revenge for 9/11 — has become a mute point. Why are American’s still defending their position in Afghanistan? Within the U.S. government, the issue of when to conclude the war in Afghanistan has always had two dominant perspectives.

One side wants to end the war as early as possible and cut military expenditures. This outlook was present even before the death of bin Laden. Some policy makers strongly question the American strategy for Afghanistan. They point out that when the war was launched in October of 2001, no one could have imagined — 10 years on — that the war would still not have ended. And then, even though bin Laden has been killed, we still cannot envision the war ending. There are also some policy makers who, because the U.S. government is continually raising the projected deficit, call into question the necessity of being involved in Afghanistan. Some legislators point out that the main elements of al-Qaida have already been swept out of Afghanistan and have moved into other areas. The Afghanistan war is not worth 100,000 troops and 1 billion tax dollars.

On the other side we have the military perspective. They want to slow down the removal of troops in order to prevent Afghanistan from falling into chaos. The American military is worried that preemptively withdrawing troops could undo the victories they have achieved — especially the achievements of the 30,000 troops added last year. The U.S. military is currently facing the Taliban’s springtime offensive. The Taliban hopes to smash Afghanistan’s current governmental administration, destroy the security forces and scatter the American forces from the region. The military has said that the U.S. should incorporate the lesson they learned in Afghanistan in 1989. That year the Soviet Union released their hold on the area, and the U.S. followed suit, removing any efforts to influence the region. The Taliban, however, did not; when the following administration had disputes, they maneuvered to gain control. From this, al-Qaida was able to establish a safeguard for their terrorist activities.

The Council on Foreign Relations Senior Researcher Stephen Biddle said, “From a military point of view, the death of bin Laden is not going to have a major impact. You can imagine blunting the morale of the Taliban is indeed helpful to us, but this effect is rather small.” Biddle thinks the effect of bin Laden’s death has been more significant in that it has caused the American people to reconsider: Is what we get out of Afghanistan worth our investments? America’s involvement in Afghanistan is multifaceted, but the most important thing is to decrease the threat of terrorism. As the threat of terrorism decreases, the United States’ involvement in Afghanistan will also decrease. If the threat were small enough, reducing the American presence there would become the right course of action.

The death of Bin Laden does not necessarily herald a blow to terrorism. In any case, bin Laden has been a mere symbol for some time now. His symbolic significance to al-Qaida has been greater than his real, practical value. To remove a leader like bin Laden is helpful, but it will not produce a definitive change.

Furthermore, al-Qaida is not the only terrorist organization today. Beyond al-Qaida, there are other Islamic extremists groups that have been developing for many years. The relationships between them are complicated. Even if al-Qaida ceased to exist due to bin Laden’s death, there would be an endless stream of similar organizations waiting to take its place. The problem with terrorism exists as before.

Reflecting on this truth, the U.S. military cannot lightly change its strategy in Afghanistan; measures such as employing drone missiles, reconnaissance activity and other counterterrorism measures currently employed will be maintained. The death of bin Laden will not be a turning point in America’s Afghanistan War.