Can China and the U.S. Create a New Asia-Pacific Security Paradigm?

The third joint meeting of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue produced many points of consensus, one of which was an agreement to set up a bilateral dialogue on Asia-Pacific security. However, because international news coverage has mainly focused on the Sino-U.S. trade dispute, the decision to establish a bilateral consultation mechanism on Asia-Pacific security issues has not received much international media attention. Despite being virtually unknown, the establishment of this new dialogue is a historical and far-reaching decision.

The First Bilateral Dialogue on Asia-Pacific Security Affairs

Asia-Pacific security has never been a focus of Sino-U.S. relations. Although Japan, Korea and Australia are all traditionally allies of the United States, they have never set up an official bilateral dialogue on Asia-Pacific security.

Conversely, while the United States and China are not traditionally allies (both nations are often seen as strategic rivals), they established a dialogue that focuses on Asia-Pacific security issues.

Why did two nations normally characterized as rivals establish such a dialogue? There are a few obvious reasons. First, the U.S. has never treated any of its above mentioned allies as equal partners, because, as the leader of the alliance, the U.S. doesn’t want them to have an equal voice in making strategic decisions; instead the U.S. only seeks the loyalty and support of its historical Asia-Pacific allies. Second, none of the above mentioned allies, nor India, which the U.S. is in the midst of courting, posess the international status or diplomatic skills to help the United States maintain Asia-Pacific regional security.

From the Chinese perspective, it is unrealistic to establish a bilateral security dialogue with any other Asia-Pacific country. While China and Russia have a strategic partnership and engage in dialogue and coordination on local security issues, it would prove inappropriate for the pair to have a bilateral dialogue on more regional Asia-Pacific security issues. The reason is simple; Russian presence and influence in the Asia-Pacific region is limited, making it difficult for the country to lead on such issues. Other countries in the region are an even less appropriate choice for similar reasons.

The United States and China’s agreement to establish a bilateral dialogue on Asia-Pacific security issues reflects a new trend in Sino-U.S. relations, which will be characterized by mutual “approval,” “respect” and “necessity.” Specifically, the two sides are ready to endorse each other’s status in Asia-Pacific security affairs and ready to respect each other’s interests in the Asia Pacific region; and they both need each other’s understanding, cooperation and support.

This new development means that the strategic plans of both countries have undergone major changes, marking a turning point in Sino-U.S. relations. Although China and the U.S. still see each other as rivals, new developments in the Asia-Pacific region have lead both countries to reach the same conclusion: Only through cooperation will it be possible to further and protect their own interests. This decision will directly affect both countries’ foreign policy strategy in the Asia-Pacific region and may lead to a strange situation in which the “non-allied” Sino-U.S. relationship becomes more important than the traditional Asia-Pacific alliances.

In short, while Japan, Korea and Australia are still indispensable allies in the United States’ Asia-Pacific strategy, in this new landscape the U.S. cannot solely rely on its traditional allies to meet its interests in the region. The United States needs to ensure the support of traditional allies, while also ensuring the cooperation of non-traditional allies, so as to preserve its own interests in the Asia-Pacific region and maximize its benefits.

For China, cooperation with the United States in Asia-Pacific security is unavoidable. This is because only through increasing coordination and cooperation with the United States can China encourage the U.S. to reduce its reliance on traditional allies and reduce the pressure from external security while gaining more voice and leadership in the Asia-Pacific affairs.

How Should China and the U.S. Build Mutual Trust?

The Sino-U.S. Asia-Pacific security dialogue is expected to start before the end of this year, with both sides showing a sense of urgency to begin the dialogue and positive expectations for its potential outcome. Will the opening of this new dialogue go smoothly? Can it lay the foundation for future security cooperation? The key to the success of the bilateral dialogue is not predicated on reaching an immediate consensus, but rather dependent on the ability of both parties to come to the talks in goodwill and sincerity. After all, the purpose of the dialogue is to assist one another manage Asia-Pacific regional security. In order to achieve this objective, the two sides must first develop and establish a degree of mutual trust.

How can the two countries build mutual trust? First, both sides should be willing to openly and honestly share their strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific region with each other. Second, both sides must be frank in articulating their concerns and, to the extent possible, attempt to understand and safeguard each other’s interests. Third, both sides must earnestly seek cooperation. Since the dialogue is intended to increase cooperation, both sides should try to avoid recriminations. In short, as long as both sides believe that such dialogue is worth it, the future of the talks will remain promising.

From China’s point of view, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea are the most pressing security questions threatening the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region. As long as the United States is supportive of China on these two issues, China has every reason to reciprocate by supporting U.S. concerns and aspirations. China could support the U.S. in several key ways. First, China could respect the traditional alliances the United States has with Japan and South Korea. Second, we could respect the security affairs of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific. Third, we could welcome broad participation by the U.S. in regional economic cooperation and other multilateral cooperation. Fourth, we could participate in appropriate cooperation on pressing regional problems such as the Korean peninsula issues.

The creation of an Asia-Pacific security dialogue is an attempt by the world’s two great powers to draw on each other’s strengths. Both the new situation in the Asia-Pacific and new trends in the region dictate that plans for the dialogue will soon become a reality, an achievement that has come after years of rivalry between the two countries. It is clear that the two countries are adjusting their international strategies, while also changing the ways in which they pursue strategic interests.

If the Asia-Pacific security dialogue progresses, the two nations will be able to overcome the bitter history of two inevitable wars and establish a peaceful coexistence for the future of the world and a new model in which major world powers cooperate with each other. To sum up, if the United States and China can work together to shape and lead a new security paradigm in the Asia-Pacific region, the damaging legacy of WWII on Asia-Pacific relations is likely to fade.

The author is a commentator on Hong Kong’s Phoenix TV.