A Horse Race: Notes on the Republicans

They believe that Obama causes immense damage to America and that it would be easy to rally the American public against him. But the Republicans have no single candidate.

This week, Sarah Palin has been caught in one more impressive embarrassment. This time it was American history. Somehow, she was asked to address Paul Revere’s ride — the most famed night ride in American history. Revere warned his friends, the American “patriots,” of the approaching British army. His secret ride to Lexington and Concord entered American folklore, largely owing to Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, who wrote a poem about him, which kids in America learn by heart till today: “Listen, my children, and you shall hear / Of the midnight ride of Paul Revere, / On the eighteenth of April, in Seventy-Five; / Hardly a man is now alive / Who remembers that famous day and year.”

Except that in Palin’s history books, Revere’s midnight ride was meant to tip off … the British. About the Americans. Meaning, as explained by Palin this week, to signal to them that the Americans are “armed” (a wink to the arms lobby in the United States) and that they would fight for their freedom. After an awful lot of chagrin, and after even Fox News — Palin’s current employers — ridiculed her a little, she said, as a matter of fact, that the midnight ride was intended to warn both the Americans, of the coming of the British — and the British, of the American militia of patriots awaiting them.

The amount of contempt awaiting her, naturally, was colossal. “I know my American history,” insisted Palin, but to no avail. And of course, straight away, experts were found who said that basically, Palin is right, and so on and so on.

The Race Is Loaded with Frivolous Candidates

This little story tells something about the competition for the presidency in 2012. Palin is not contending — not yet, officially — but this race has been packed, and maybe still is, with frivolous competitors and, sometimes, with actual comic relief.

Donald Trump used to be a great example, until a moment before Obama terminated his race by a satirical humiliation in the White House. “Now, I know that he’s taken some flak lately, but no one is prouder to put this birth certificate to rest than The Donald. [Now he can get to focusing on the issues that matter,]” mocked the president. “Like… What really happened at Roswell? And where are Biggie and Tupac?”

Take Newt Gingrich. He’s not frivolous and definitely not just for comic relief, but it’s very difficult to sell a Republican candidate who preaches family values, led a crusade against Bill Clinton in light of the Monica Lewinsky scandal — but who himself had an extramarital affair at the time, and not his first one. He’s married for the third time, and he asked for a divorce from his first wife when she was lying in the hospital after a surgery to remove a tumor.

It’s Hard for Republicans to Pardon Mitt Romney

The most serious of the GOP candidates is Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, which is usually a Democratic state. Romney is Mormon, which is considered a shortcoming in this kind of competition, but the reason the Republican core despises the successful multi-millionaire is much more substantive: when he was governor, he created a noteworthy public health care program.

For extreme Republicans, public health services are the root of all evil and one of the key grounds on which to attack Obama. Romney raised about $10 million in one day in the last month — which, by the way, he did in Las Vegas, of course — but still the Republicans find it hard to pardon him.

This week, Rick Santorum, a delegate of the ultra-conservative camp within the Republican Party, joined the race. Although a young and energetic contender, he is also one who had been thrown by the voters from his seat in the Senate because of his conservative positions and one who lacks the fund-raising ability of his more well-known friends.

Besides him, there is surely the potential candidate Michele Bachmann, another remarkable representative of the tea party, the fanatic conservative movement that took over segments of the Republican Party, and the eternal candidate Ron Paul, GOP isolationist of the old breed.

A Year and a Half before the Contest — and No Winning Candidate

Why? There’s not a true alternative to Barack Obama. It’s still early to prophesy, but political commentators in the United States tend to get started already. They say that over the last hundred years, there has been no precedent when a prominent GOP frontrunner hasn’t emerged yet at a time of such proximity to the presidential elections.

A year and a half before the contest, and there’s no contender who enjoys even 30 percent of support, despite the fact that some of them — Romney and Gingrich, not to mention Palin — being very familiar to the American public. It’s very premature to say that the race is lost for the Republicans, but, off the record, the party higher-ups are expressing deep feelings of frustration. They really and truly believe that Obama is inflicting enormous damage to America, and that it’s going to be easy to mobilize, with the right planning, the American electorate against him. But they just don’t have a candidate.

Their real problem is tougher, even if they have trouble admitting it. The problem is ideological. The Republicans have difficulties presenting a middle way, a reasonable and moderate solution that can stand up to the Obama’s basic political arguments. The more radical edges of the party win great insider sympathy and low sympathy — generally and relatively — with the whole American population.

The Republicans warn that Obama is gunning for an unprecedented level involvement by the government, and the extremists among them were quick to tag this as socialism. They were shocked by the stimulus plans and by the increase of the governmental expenditure as a whole — as seen in the rescue of the auto industry giants through the practical nationalization of Chrysler and General Motors.

The result: Chrysler and General Motors were saved from dissolution, their relative market share has been rising for the first time since the 1990s and, for the first time since 2004, all three auto producers in America (Ford too) show massive profits. Oh, and lest we forget: This week, the United States government sold its last shares in Chrysler, regained its investment and left in peace. The professional unions of automakers are already in the administration’s pocket.

It’s Still the Economy, Stupid

More specifically, the classic Republican talk concerning the deficit should deal with two weaknesses: first, handling the failed American health system, which they don’t want to be replaced by the public option Obama set up.

The American deficit is largely a result of the steadily increasing health care costs — and they are a consequence of the twisted health condition of the people, which is not acceptable in Western countries. Yet the Republicans, loyal to their ideological and somewhat provincial code, are not ready for it to change. And certainly, there is history — when Bill Clinton was president, the United States achieved a balanced budget. Eight years of Bush — and the outcome has been the deficit catastrophe.

In the face of this state of affairs, it is no wonder that the GOP candidates are gladly attacking Obama on his foreign policy — and especially on his attitude toward Israel. From their standpoint, the domestic stuff starts to get problematic.

On the opposite side, Obama is not doing well in tackling efficiently the plight of unemployment, and statistics from the month of May have brought another disappointment to the administration. [If] the unemployment figures are poor in the coming year, then even Newt Gingrich will turn into an effective candidate. It’s the economy, stupid — as postulated by Bill Clinton. That was correct for America of 1992, and it will also be true two decades later.