After over 10 years of war, we may finally have reached a turning point for peace: President Obama has announced the withdrawal schedule for U.S. soldiers stationed in Afghanistan. Between July and the end of the year, 10,000 troops will go home; by summer next year, a total of 33,000 troops are going to leave. All together, a third of the 100,000 soldiers stationed in the country are scheduled to be withdrawn.
“The tide of war is receding,” he explained. Also addressing the Taliban, the Islamic force which has been America’s antagonists in this desperate struggle, he stated that “America will join initiatives that reconcile the Afghan people.”
The killing of Osama bin Laden, leader of the international terrorist organization al-Qaida, in May this year was probably a major contributing factor to this change of direction. In 2001, refusal by the Taliban government at the time to hand over Osama bin Laden triggered America’s decision to attack Afghanistan. Now that this ringleader of terrorism is no more, Afghanistan is no longer of vital interest to the United States.
Another factor is the American budget. Under the influence of the Lehman shock, the budget deficit has been increasing, and a substantial reduction in defense expenditures has become essential. It is no longer feasible to invest $120 billion per year solely in the Afghan war.
The speech during which President Obama announced that “it is time to focus on nation building here at home” reflects public opinion within the United States, which has been stricken by the economic depression.
We must also take into account the schedule for the presidential election. Next autumn, directly after the planned withdrawal of 33,000 American troops, it will be decided whether Obama can secure his second term. The war in Afghanistan has been referred to as “Obama’s war” ever since he decided to send reinforcements.
Nonetheless, throughout these 10 years, the Afghan people have been carrying the heaviest burden of all. According to the United Nations, the number of civilians killed in combat reached a four-year high at 368 last month. Most of these casualties were due to bombs laid by anti-government forces, but U.S. friendly fire has also taken countless victims. It will still be a long time before people begin to notice any restoration of public order.
It is crucial to continue negotiations in order to avoid another civil war after the withdrawal. The United States’ proactive approach to reconciliation with Karzai’s government as well as the Taliban is a sign of progress. Afghanistan’s neighbor, Pakistan, wields some influence over the Taliban leadership, and its cooperation would be welcome.
The war has lasted for too long and has dealt hard blows to all countries involved. We need a real and workable exit strategy this time.
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