Afghanistan: Politics Override Strategy

The fact that the plan to withdraw the United States Army from Afghanistan has been carried out in spite of the recommendations from the American generals should be a cause for concern.

Having decided to withdraw 10,000 and, by the summer of next year, another 20,000 American soldiers from Afghanistan, President Barack Obama has ignored the advice of his military advisers. The situation is so serious that Michael Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) has publicly expressed his criticism. The usually subdued commander said Obama’s plans were “more aggressive and incur more risk” than the military has recommended. In practice, this means that more soldiers than there should be will leave Afghanistan for political reasons in the near future. Such a decision may have negative consequences for other contingents, including the Polish one. Each one looks at what the Americans do. The Pentagon is concerned that Obama’s decision will trigger a snowball effect — others may follow America’s example which, on the one hand, will pose a risk for them, increasing the pressure to eventually leave Afghanistan.

It is impossible not to mention at this point the events of 2003, when the Americans were preparing an operation against Iraq. Then, the politicians ignored the advice of military advisers concerning the number of troops needed to attack. According to officers, there was a need for at least several hundred thousand soldiers — meanwhile, the politicians headed by George W. Bush and Paul Wolfowitz acknowledged that the number of soldiers is secondary and that they could defeat the regime of Saddam Hussein even with a handful of forces. It resulted in disaster and chaos for many years. If only this time politicians, not officers, are right.

The president, Obama, has pointed out that the departure of soldiers will depend upon the situation in Afghanistan. In other words, the soldiers do not have to leave the place if geostrategic reasons make them stay. Unfortunately, there is a high risk that the military strategy will falter, in this case, with politics. Even if the situation in Afghanistan gets worse, Obama, since he is running for re-election, may withdraw troops, so as to gain percentages which might lead him to victory. In this situation, it is difficult not to see any other problems — the date of withdrawal is to be the summer of 2012, the season in which the heaviest warfare takes place in Afghanistan (the situation always calms down in the winter). In the most difficult period, the international forces may lose 20,000 soldiers, which may put the soldiers in the Hindu Kush at high risk (soon after the reduction of the quota, the Americans will have 68,000 soldiers in Afghanistan). Military analysts have predicted that this will lead to a growth in the number of victims. The more victims there are, the more pressure there is for an immediate withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The withdrawal of American troops in Afghanistan will make practically impossible the plans to carry out an offensive in southern Afghanistan akin to that of 2009 when the provinces of Kandahar and Helmand were regained. What’s more, Obama’s decision has lessened the chance of successful peace negotiations with the Taliban, who have been the subject of many debates in recent weeks. Knowing the date of withdrawal of the first American troops from the Hindu Kush, the Taliban may go to ground and then hit with great force in the second half of 2012. It is unclear how, in this situation, the weak and corrupt Afghan security forces might react. Although the Americans have been convinced that they will handle the situation, if one takes into account an overwhelming Taliban offensive, this optimism may be mistaken.