Afghanistan, Libya: We Don’t Learn from Our Mistakes

In Italy, between Bisignani and Pontida an epochal announcement passed almost unobserved: Obama’s America is negotiating with the Taliban, as Pentagon head Robert Gates announced. The spin-doctors presented it well: Because bin Laden is dead and al-Qaida is much weaker, we can think about retreat. Reality is more subtle: After ten years of war, which have cost many human lives and even more in financial terms, America, at the head of an international coalition, is not able to control the territory and is forced to negotiate with the Taliban.

That the negotiations will succeed is doubtful, because the Taliban know that lengthening guerrilla warfare would wear on their adversaries, inducing them to leave unconditionally. In any case the meaning is evident: You don’t start a war without studying the enemy’s strengths, without a precise objective and not without being reasonably sure of a quick victory. And not without attentively planning for the post-war situation. The American government respected none of these conditions.

America started the war just after Sept. 11, but they didn’t finish it. They preferred to divert the best forces to Iraq, then they circumambulated, allowing the Taliban to reorganize themselves. Several years later, when they realized they were losing control of the country, it was too late to deal the knockout blow. All this without having ever thought of an ambitious and articulated plan to maintain civil society.

I am certain that the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq will be studied by tomorrow’s strategists about how NOT to conduct a war.

The Afghan epilogue cannot help but make us reflect on the war in Libya, which, if possible, has been conducted even worse than in Afghanistan, even if the errors made in Kabul were known to the military leadership. Anything but a quick war. It started in March, and a few days ago NATO lengthened the mission at least to the end of September, all the while knowing that, without some surprises, three months would not be enough. In short, there is a risk this will be very long. Maybe this is the time the allies should begin to think about alternative solutions to Gadhafi’s ouster, and hopefully they’ll send the bill to Sarkozy.

Of course they won’t do that and the war will go on, but why doesn’t the West learn from their mistakes anymore? And in the end, was it really necessary to go along with Sarko’s follies?