The Republican Bet on Obama's Failure

Mexico and the United States will both hold presidential elections in 2012. The electoral processes have already commenced in both countries. In addition to the coincidence of dates, there are other similarities, such as the overwhelming ambition of the Republicans and members of the PAN [Partido Accion Nacional or National Action Party], while, at least according to the polls and the voter base, they have no possibility of even passing first base. The difference is that while Calderon’s term is on the countdown, since his exit has no re-entrance, Obama has already started his campaign, of which the main project is the same government program.

If things go well for the U.S. economy and the fight against unemployment, Obama will have secured his re-election. Calderon, meanwhile, will try to finish out the fiesta peacefully, which is not figuratively, but literally, his most fervent wish. The country would not support political violence; the criminal violence is more than enough.

The Republican Party is betting on the failure of Obama’s management of the situation — thus the apparent lack of interest in rebuilding the economy. The strategy of dismantling the agenda of Obama’s government is to prevent his re-election. The Republicans are willing to sacrifice the conditions of their country for a year and a half in order to see Obama’s project fail.

Last week, the Republicans, who have already held various debates, organized one more to include Rick Perry, governor of Texas, who is now a candidate for the Republican ticket. The debate was a fiasco. The level of the discussion was focused on attacking Obama. Another segment was to discover which of the states is more efficient at stealing the jobs of others. In addition to questioning the federal bureaucracy and high taxes — which, curiously, are at historically low levels — on the other side of the debate was the very same Rick Perry.

The governor of Texas has become the target of attack for the other candidates. Perry, like Marcelo Ebrard of the PRD [Partido de Revolucion Democratico or the Party of Democratic Revolution], is at the front of the polls. His credentials are many, including his famous success at creating jobs. He is talking about a million jobs in this past decade. This statement provoked a ridiculous row between the ex-governor candidates, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Jon Huntsman of Utah, who claimed to have created more jobs than Perry. The truth is that governors do not create jobs, except those that come from their bureaucracies. Employment is generated by the private sector when economic conditions allow. Therefore, the slogan of Calderon as “the president of employment” is a joke. Much of the employment in Texas is due to trade with Mexico.

Perry claims to secure the border with our country, despite the disinterest (as Perry puts it) of the Obama administration. At the same time, he speaks of a symbiotic relationship with Mexico. Perry is pro-migrant. He is a rare Republican case, as was George W. Bush, who was convinced of the value of Mexican labor in the United States. Perry has declared himself to be against policies like those in Arizona and anti-immigrant laws; he does not feel that it is a good idea to ask migrants about their legal status. In this regard, Texas, despite what may be said, is a haven for undocumented migrants. Perry signed a law in 2001 to help migrant university students, as well as school children, regardless of their immigration status. An estimated 12,000 illegal college students benefited from the measure.

Perry plays dangerous, because his opinions in favor of Mexican migrants form part of a double standard. On the one hand, he does not want to alienate the Hispanic population, mostly of Mexican origin in Texas, which has reached 38 percent [of the population]. He cannot disregard those votes. On the other hand, he must keep up with the most radical group of the GOP, the tea party, even as they judge Perry harshly because of his flexibility with illegal immigrants. This explains his eagerness to work to shield the vast frontier of Texas in conjunction with four Mexican states: Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, Coahuila and Chihuahua.

Another facet of Perry is his ideological commitment to the death penalty. In the debate, when he was criticized for the fact that Texas is the state that carries out the most executions in the United States, the public gave Perry a standing ovation. A good part of the dead are Mexican criminals. What is in Mexico’s best interest, a change or holding steady with Obama? It is still too early to answer. What is surely in our best interest is a change in Mexican politics.