Who's Going to Pay for That?

The Americans ought to proceed opposite from what their instinct may dictate: they should charge the price of the veto to Ramallah, and not to Jerusalem.

For Israel, greater isolation means a greater dependence which follows: from Jerusalem facing a tsunami, to Washington preoccupied with its business and groaning under the commitment to put brakes on the Palestinian maneuver, to Western Europe, requested by the Americans to release them from the embarrassing need to cast a veto, which President Obama doesn’t want to do.

The price Israel is about to pay will follow backward correspondingly. Europe, should it consent to join the American move, would demand payment in Israeli currency. In view of a weakening and preoccupied Washington, in view of the Israeli government that doesn’t have someone to lean on except for the U.S. Congress; among the Europeans, there are some who see an opportunity. In exchange for the assistance that would prevent American isolation, in an effort to prevent Israeli isolation, the Europeans will ask for a discount entrance ticket to the political process. The network of interests of the countries aiming to improve their positions this week, as the Friday showdown at high noon approaches, is more entangled than the eye can see.

Tuesday, when the Palestinians will submit their statehood request, is going to be another bad day in a bad year for the Obama administration. It will be so because of the burdensome need to side with the Israeli government that the American administration finds difficult to understand and esteem, but also because of the book by the journalist Ron Suskind who publicly aired the dirty laundry of the White House.

This book, contending with Abu Mazen for attention, threatens to ignite a maelstrom of leaks and counter-leaks, and further erode the reputation of the president, who is increasingly depicted as one controlled by events instead of the one controlling them.

Some Sort of Comfort

The continued weakness of Washington is a key trigger behind the Palestinian move in the U.N. Israel dared to refuse to the Obama administration in several decisive junctures. However, Palestinians leadership has gone way too far in recent weeks.

A campaign of entreaties, pressures and veiled threats did not manage to stop the resolute caravan of Ramallah higher-ups en route to New York. Hence, not only should questions be asked about how much Israel will have to pay in return for a veto, but uneasy queries about the price Washington intends to charge the Palestinians for their disrespect should also be brought up. If the American administration has a desire to continue influencing the political process, it won’t have any other option than to prove to the Palestinians that clashing with Washington comes with a hefty price tag.

The Americans have proven such determination when they saved the lives of Israeli security guards in Cairo — they affirmed that when it comes to Egyptian leadership, at least, their influence is intact. That’s some kind of consolation: were America’s standings with Cairo like its standings with Ankara, not only would the guards’ lives be in much greater danger, but it would also involve Israeli interests of major significance in Egypt, in addition to being affected by Israel-Egypt relations.

Without Cracks

So how much is the American veto going to cost? If there is someone in Washington capable of computing the costs and benefits, it would derive from future collection measures. If there is someone in the administration capable of performing a cold calculation of the American interest, then the price of a veto will not necessarily be attached to the Israeli shekel.

So far, there are several signs of positive developments in the administration’s understanding of the equation of forces in the Middle East. Contrary to the previous session in the U.N., in the vote for a resolution on the settlements, this time, the U.S. has announced early and without stuttering that they will issue a veto.

Unlike the prior rounds of dealings with Israel, no cracks were revealed this time in the coordination between the Israeli and American governments. In any case, America is indeed required to act in a way that makes it hard to get closer to the Arab world and win its trust. But America’s real problem at the moment is not an issue of trust and popularity. It has been three years since President Obama has been diligently working on the improvement of the American image in the Middle East, yet the results are not encouraging, neither for him, nor for his team.

And in other words: in order for the Palestinians to believe in American leadership, in order for them to dare not to flout the rules in the future as they do now, the Americans have to behave in a manner contrary to what their instinct says. They should collect the expense of the veto in Ramallah, and not in Jerusalem.