What Does Selling Arms to Taiwan Have To Do with America's Strategic Interests?

Recently, the U.S. announced a new round of arms sales to Taiwan, which promptly infuriated the Chinese government. The State Department and Department of Homeland Security responded immediately, strongly protesting that the U.S. had not infringed upon China’s core interests or interfered in China’s internal affairs. Minister of Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi quickly met with Hillary Clinton and elaborated on the position of the Chinese government, which hopes that the U.S. will cease arms sales to Taiwan.

In response, Hillary said that maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is in line with America’s strategic interests, and that, “in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act,” providing Taiwan with reasonable defensive equipment and maintaining Taiwan’s defensive capabilities is crucial to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Americans will absolutely not revoke the policy of selling arms to Taiwan.

As for the attitude of Americans toward selling arms to Taiwan, they indignantly suggest that if China can publicly announce the cessation of all military exchanges with the U.S., put sanctions on American companies that participate in the sale of arms to Taiwan and can even reduce its American imports and make U.S. unemployment numbers suffer a loss at least as great as it would from the effects of ending arms sales to Taiwan, then the mainland should, at the same time, put economic sanctions on Taipei.

Why did Hillary say that maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is in line with U.S. strategic interests and persist in fulfilling the obligations of the Taiwan Relations Act? Will the aforementioned sanction measures adopted by the mainland really be able to make the U.S. end its arms sales to Taiwan?

The first thing we should know is what the basis for U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is. As for this past sale of arms to Taiwan, the U.S. clearly explained, “The Taiwan Relations Act clearly notes that providing reasonable defensive equipment and maintaining Taiwan’s defensive capabilities is critical to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” This is to say, the U.S. sells arms to Taiwan on the basis of the Taiwan Relations Act — so how is it that this law came into being?

The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) is a U.S. domestic law currently in effect. In 1979, after the U.S. broke off diplomatic relations with Taiwan and established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China, the U.S. Congress drew up this law, which was signed into effect by the president, regulating U.S.-Taiwan relations from that point forward. That is to say that, in 1979, the U.S. government established relations with China and signed the Three Joint Communiques in Shanghai, while at the same time putting forth this law. In the law, the U.S. made “Six Assurances” to Taiwan. Among these was the provision of selling defensive weapons to Taiwan. Clearly, without repealing the law, the chances of the U.S. government stopping the sale of arms to Taiwan on principal are very slim.

Thirty-some years later, China’s national power as a whole is continually strengthening. It goes without saying that its international standing is also rising. China is even buying $1.2 trillion in U.S. debt. Why then will the U.S. cling unrelentingly to this law to uphold tiny little Taiwan, even at the expense of making enemies with China? Not to mention the fact that it says that “maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is in line with U.S. strategic interests.” …

Whether Taiwan can “maintain the current situation” has a direct impact on America’s status and impact in the world and in the Asia-Pacific region in particular. It is a critical chess piece when it comes to constraining China, America’s next great rival, as China dreams of reviving itself and becoming a century-long great power.

Suppose the U.S. bends under China’s pressure to drop arms sales to Taiwan, symbolizing that the TRA exists in name only. It goes without saying that this would be a sign of change in America’s status and influence in the world and in the Asia-Pacific in particular. America’s status and influence in the region would henceforth shift to China; China would replace the U.S. by exerting its own actions and influence on the world, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.

The U.S., mainland China and Taiwan all understand that without the protection of the U.S., Taiwan barely stands a chance at long-term survival all alone overseas. No matter on what terms Taiwan might return to the mainland, it would be detrimental to U.S. interests. This is because Taiwan is the critical chess piece that is constraining China’s plan to become America’s future competitor.

Militarily speaking, if the “first island chain” were to be broken, the Taiwan Strait would become China’s domestic sea and Taiwan would no longer act as a buffer. China’s strategic defenses would advance, unstopped until Japan’s Okinawa archipelago. China’s military might would directly stifle America’s military bases in Japan. Moreover, when the “first island chain” no longer exists, China’s navy will have even easier access to the Pacific Ocean. …

If Taiwan is returned to China, America’s influence over all Southeast Asian countries will diminish, thus making it much more simple for China to handle disputes in the South China Sea.

Politically speaking, if Taiwan can maintain the current situation, the U.S. hopes that the model of Taiwan’s conversion to the democratic system will be able to influence and infiltrate the mainland, putting pressure on the mainland’s political system. At the same time, the U.S. can also give confidence to those who seek independence in Xinjiang and Tibet — that Taiwan is in fact a model! This would bring about upheaval in China’s domestic politics; if the economy cannot be developed smoothly, this is also another concern of the Chinese government.

From an economic perspective, China wants to prevent that from happening and to change Taiwan’s “not reunited, not independent, not militarized” political layout. If the mainland wants to achieve peaceful reunification with Taiwan, then its military power needs to maintain its deterrent posture. This is sure to open up an arms race with the U.S. and will, to some extent, delay the pace of China’s economic development.

How can a China that has been strategically surrounded internationally — whose domestic territory has split, who is experiencing political upheaval and whose economy is lagging — possibly strive to realize its goal of reviving itself and rivaling the U.S. for the dream of becoming a great century-long power?!?!

This is the root of America’s strategic interest in maintaining arms sales to Taiwan.