The various dimensions of the crisis affecting the West — economic, financial, budgetary, social — are more than well-known. However, when it comes to interpreting this crisis, as well as discussing how to avoid disaster, opinions vary.
The main reason for these divergent views is that the situation in which Europe finds itself is not the same as that of the United States. Also, in history, they are not even comparable.
Are we in the midst of a repetitive growth crisis, or is this the last phase of a global existential crisis, meant to change the rules of the international game? The solution is either to pump money and facilities into the system, in order to stimulate the economy at any cost or, on the contrary, to impose strict austerity measures, meant to reduce budget deficit and enormous sovereign debts.
In the United States, the Obama administration, as opposed to the Republicans, fiercely supports the first solution. However, the crisis across the ocean is not the same as the one in Europe. More than that, America is a federal country, with a strong central administration, remarkable linguistic unity, just one or two official languages, Spanish included*, and unquestionable national loyalties.
The United States has a colossal sovereign debt of $14 trillion, plus major budget imbalances that have been worsening continuously since the 1960s, when left-wing politics inspired by European ideologies managed to cross the Atlantic and reach the White House — wrapped in the smile of the charming John F. Kennedy.
But it’s still the United States that not only possesses the best war machine ever built, and a sophisticated global system of alliances and partnerships, but also an untouched and perfectly functional production, as well as technological and infrastructural bases.
There was never a time in history when a country in a similar situation went bankrupt or was executed by creditors. One way or another, the United States will overcome this crisis. Worst case scenario: The constitutional republic will have to make way for an empire which until now was never considered as such. Best case scenario: The U.S. will resolve its financial issues on other powers’ backs, who are bound to make serious and irreparable mistakes when calculating their external policy.
But in between the extremes, there are also a few intermediary scenarios. In other words, the U.S. benefits from a reasonable menu of options that keeps it safe from major survival issues.
Therefore, the Obama administration is somewhat justified in strongly promoting the stimulation of growth, even if it implies not only dollar printing and the artificial injection of these dollars into the economy, but also an increase in federal debt.
Since it is guaranteed by the federal government, as written on every bill, the U.S. dollar cannot collapse, no matter the devaluation. Also, the U.S. dollar is strong enough to take on any coming challenge, whether external or internal.
However, there is something that the multi-polarity fanatics are overlooking, and this is the fact that non-western powers, such as China, own huge sums of money in U.S. dollars and therefore have a direct and essential interest in maintaining the dollar’s role as the international trading and reserve currency. This is why, supported by Brazil, Russia is pushing the famous BRIC group, trying to replace the U.S. dollar as the international reference currency. Chinese and Indian officials smile politely and pretend not to understand.
The situation in Europe is far worse. After 2008, European leaders discovered that they are not facing a cyclic crisis of capitalism, but a moment of truth, when the price for all of the left wing’s stupidities, implemented starting in the 1960s, must to be paid.
In reality, the Western European economies are not that capitalist anymore, at least not according to the dictionary definition of capitalism (for example, nowadays China is considered to be more “capitalist” than France). Non-communist Europe’s glorious 30 years of economic growth (1945-1973) are not over because the Arabs raised the price of gasoline, but because the Western politicians introduced the welfare state. The oil crisis in 1973 was nothing more than the final blow to a capitalist system that was already internally weakened.
It was the democratic politicians who smothered economic growth. Under the continuous burden of bureaucratic regulations and the so-called “European Social Model,” Western European capitalism slowly turned into a wreck. Realizing that just 19 percent of France’s gross domestic product comes from the manufacturing industry, there’s no use in Sarkozy shaking his angry fist at European companies who are relocating their production lines to China, India, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.
Both industrialists and manufacturers prefer offering jobs in capitalist countries, rather than in socialist ones. Considering the fact that it was capitalism that got Europe out of dirt and poverty, Western politicians should be the first to acknowledge this. And nowadays Europe risks falling back into poverty and violence, all with the “help” of the socialism behind social and humanist slogans.
Since 1973, economic growth rates have been constantly flimsy. The illusion of growth was kept up until 2008, through the massive tolerance of extra-European immigration, which turned into cheap labor, prolonging the system’s agony.
As a result, immigration, immigrants and multiculturalism became main subjects for the internal policies of several Western-European countries, whose societies found themselves sitting on a time bomb and not knowing what to do.
Understanding the deadly danger lurking in European countries, European leaders, whether left- or right wing, all chose austerity in their attempt to reduce deficits and maintain control over sovereign debt. However, understanding the danger does not mean that the strategy will work.
The tens of millions of socially assisted people will not willingly accept being sent back to work after 40 years of living just fine with money borrowed from foreign governments. More than that, Western governments are going to be faced with major trouble sending these people back to work. The reason is that these governments are controlled by political, intellectual and media “elites,” who for the past 40 years have been condemning the state’s repressive and judicial functions, democratic or not, and have been praising the “right” of the lazy to be kept by those actually working.
That is not the only danger. For awhile now, Brussels’ bureaucracy has been sniffing the great opportunity of taking European integrity to the next level, which is something that, in times of prosperity and economic growth, European countries would never have gone for.
Under the pressures leading them straight into the hands of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, and those of the banking system, led by ECB, leaders in Paris and Berlin are stumbling more and more after each meeting or summit.
In contrast to the United States, in Europe the worst-case scenario is also the most likely — an empire with no emperor, controlled by an efficient but impersonal bureaucracy, socialized, redistributive, anti-capitalist, anti-liberal, amoral and hostile to Judeo-Christian traditions. Avoiding this outcome is the great battle of our times.
*Editor's note: English is the official language of the United States.
Caracterul multi-dimensional - economic, financiar, bugetar, valoric, social - al crizei care afecteaza Occidentul este unanim recunoscut. Parerile sunt insa impartite cand vine vorba de interpretarea crizei, dar si cand se discuta strategiile de evitare a dezastrului.
Motivul esential al divergentelor de optica este ca SUA si Europa nu se afla in situatii identice si nici macar in etape istorice comparabile.
Suntem in prezenta unei crize ciclice "de crestere" sau in faza terminala a unei crize existentiale, care schimba echilibrul global si "regulile jocului" international? Solutia consta in "injectarea" de bani si facilitati in sistem, pentru a stimula cu orice pret reluarea cresterii economice sau, dimpotriva, in adoptarea de masuri de austeritate dure, vizand reducerea deficitelor bugetare si datoriilor suverane imense?
In SUA, Administratia Obama sustine primul set de interpretari, intr-o confruntare ideologica feroce cu opozitia de dreapta republicana. Dar criza de peste ocean nu este chiar la fel cu cea din Europa. In plus, America este un stat federal, cu o administratie centrala puternica, o unificare lingvistica remarcabila (o singura limba, maximum doua considerand si spaniola) si cu loialitati nationale clare si indubitabile.
SUA au o colosala datorie suverana de 14 trilioane de dolari, plus dezechilibre bugetare severe, acumulate continuu dupa 1960, cand politicile de stanga de inspiratie europeana au reusit sa traverseze Atlanticul si sa patrunda in Casa Alba sub zambetul charismaticului presedinte John Kennedy.
Dar tot SUA dispun si de cea mai performanta masina de razboi construita vreodata, de un sistem global sofisticat de aliante si parteneriate, iar baza lor de productie, cea inovativ-tehnologica si infrastructurile sunt intacte si perfect functionale.
Niciodata in istorie un stat aflat intr-o astfel de pozitie nu a "dat faliment" si nici nu a fost executat silit de creditori. SUA vor iesi din actuala criza, intr-un fel sau altul. In cel mai rau caz, republica va ceda locul unui "Imperiu", niciodata recunoscut ca atare. In cel mai bun caz, republica isi va rezolva problemele financiare pe seama altor puteri, care vor face greseli grave si ireparabile in calcularea politicii lor externe.
Intre cele doua extreme, exista si cateva scenarii intermediare. Cu alte cuvinte, SUA dispun de un meniu rezonabil de optiuni, fara a avea probleme esentiale de supravietuire.
Administratia Obama are, asadar, o oarecare justificare atunci cand promoveaza puternic stimularea relansarii cresterii, chiar daca aceasta inseamna tiparirea de dolari si injectarea lor artificiala in economie, precum si cresterea datoriei federale.
Chiar devalorizat, dolarul american nu se poate "prabusi" pentru ca este garantat, cum scrie pe fiecare bancnota, de Guvernul federal de la Washington, iar acesta este suficient de puternic pentru a rezista oricaror provocari, externe sau interne.
Ceea ce scapa apologetilor "multi-polarismului" este ca mari puteri non-occidentale, China in primul rand, sunt direct si vital interesate de mentinerea rolurilor dolarului de moneda de tranzactie internationala si de moneda de rezerva, deoarece detin sume imense in moneda americana. De aceea, Rusia, sustinuta de Brazilia, se agita fara spor in mult-mediatizatul grup BRIC, incercand "inlocuirea dolarului SUA ca moneda internationala de referinta", iar oficialii chinezi si indieni zambesc politicos si se prefac ca nu inteleg subiectul.
In Europa, situatia este mai grava. Liderii europeni au descoperit, dupa 2008, ca nu se afla in fata unei crize ciclice de crestere a economiei capitaliste, ci in fata momentului adevarului, cand vor trebui platite toate prostiile crase de stanga implementate incepand din anii 1960.
In fapt, economiile vest-europene nu prea mai sunt capitaliste, cel putin nu in sensul de dictionar al cuvantului (China, de exemplu, este azi "mai capitalista" decat Franta). Cei "30 de ani gloriosi" de crestere accelerata a Europei necomuniste (1945-1973) nu s-au incheiat pentru ca "arabii au crescut pretul petrolului", ci din cauza politicilor de introducere a statului asistential sau social, adoptate de politicienii occidentali. Criza petrolului din 1973 a dat doar lovitura finala unui sistem capitalist deja slabit din interior.
Cresterea economica a fost sufocata chiar de politicienii democrati. Sub povara crescanda a reglementarilor birocratice si a "modelului social european", capitalismul vest-european a ajuns treptat o piesa de muzeu. Degeaba tuna si fulgera astazi domnul Sarkozy la adresa companiilor europene care isi muta productia in China, India, Singapore, Malaezia, Indonezia etc., si constata ca doar 19% din PIB-ul Frantei se mai datoreaza industriei prelucratoare.
Industriasii si producatorii prefera sa se stabileasca si sa ofere joburi in tarile capitaliste, nu in cele socialiste, iar politicienii occidentali ar fi fost primii in masura sa cunoasca acest lucru, avand in vedere ca Europa a iesit din mizerie si saracie pe "mana" capitalismului. Si risca astazi sa cada la loc in mizerie (si violenta) pe "mana" socialismului mascat in lozinci "sociale" si "umaniste".
Dupa 1973, ratele de crestere economica, in Occident, au ramas constant anemice. Iluzia "cresterii" a fost intretinuta pana in 2008 prin acceptarea masiva a imigratiei extra-europeane, care a adus milioane de brate ieftine de munca, prelungind astfel agonia sistemului.
Urmare acestei politici, imigratia, imigrantii si "multiculturalismul" au devenit astazi teme majore pe agendele politice interne din multe state vest-europene, ale caror societati s-au "trezit" ca au la temelie o bomba cu ceas, cu care nu stiu ce sa faca.
Intelegand pericolul mortal care pandeste statele-natiune din Europa, liderii europeni, fie ei de dreapta sau de stanga, au optat pentru strategia austeritatii in incercarea de a reduce deficitele si de a nu scapa definitiv de sub control problema datoriilor suverane. Faptul ca liderii au inteles corect pericolul nu inseamna insa ca strategia va si functiona.
Zecile de milioane de asistati social nu vor accepta, de bunavoie, sa fie retrimisi la munca, dupa ce 40 de ani au trait excelent din banii imprumutati de guverne in numele tuturor celorlalti. Iar guvernele occidentale, captive ale unor "elite" politice, intelectuale, mediatice care diabolizeaza, tot de vreo 40 de ani, functiile represive si justitiare ale statului, fie ele si perfect democratice, ridicand in schimb in slavi "dreptul" indivizilor care nu fac nimic de a fi intretinuti de cei care care muncesc, vor avea probleme uriase in a-i trimite inapoi la munca.
Si acesta nu este singurul pericol. Birocratia de la Bruxelles adulmeca de ceva timp sansa extraordinara de a avansa integrarea europeana, pe care popoarele europene n-ar fi acceptat-o niciodata in vremuri de prosperitate si avant economic.
Liderii de la Paris si Berlin se clatina tot mai evident, dupa fiecare intalnire sau summit, sub presiunile combinate care ii imping spre toboganul care ii va duce exact in "captivitatea" birocratilor nealesi de nimeni de la Bruxelles si a sistemului bancar in frunte cu BCE.
In Europa, spre deosebire de SUA, cel mai rau scenariu are si prima sansa: aparitia unui "Imperiu fara imparat", controlat de o birocratie impersonal-eficienta, socializanta, redistributiva, anti-capitalista, anti-liberala, amorala si ostila traditiilor iudeo-crestine. Evitarea acestui risc este marea batalie a vremurilor noastre.
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