While America Withdraws from Iraq…

The American military is withdrawing completely from Iraq. Starting from Jan. 1, 2012, the force in charge of protecting the U.S. embassy in Baghdad will be comprised of just a few hundred U.S. Marine troops. This is not a development that will end American stewardship of Iraq, but it will certainly weaken it to a considerable degree. Even if the U.S. can deploy strong enough forces in Kuwait to intervene in Iraq if necessary or engage with Iran, the withdrawal leaves a large void in its wake.

Turkey’s position in the region could be affected by this development in several ways…

There is a strong possibility that Turkey will have to come face to face with Iran in 2012 as it tries to increase its influence in the region, especially with regard to the Syrian regime and those rebelling against it. Iranian activity in Iraq has deepened despite the U.S. presence in Iraq. The acceleration of Iran’s influence after the U.S. withdrawal is just the nature of the beast. In this way Iran will embrace the chance to form a territorial alliance in the eastern Mediterranean region with Syria and the Shiite areas of Iraq. Using this overland connection, Iran will do everything in its power to protect the threatened Baath regime with which it is aligned. Again — the nature of the beast.

By the way, one should probably make a note in the margin that some dramatic developments that would come as surprising to many, such as an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, could push the calculus of this game to places that are difficult to predict.

The Syrian regime could end up surviving for longer than anyone expects thanks to its military and the support of Iran.

Yes, in the ideological and strategic wave of change that has been called the Arab Spring, the Tehran-Damascus axis is the loser. But even while losing, they could very well exacerbate the problems of others in the region.

Unfortunately Turkey comes at the top of the list whose problems could grow while the “axis” takes its time in declining.

The leading problem in Turkey right now is the Kurdish question.

The U.S. withdrawal from Iraq only helps bring the “axis” and Kandil closer at a time when Turkey’s relations with Iran and Syria are strained, with no relief in sight.

The Complex Position of PJAK

It is important to evaluate the suspension of armed activities by PJAK (Party of Free Life of Kurdistan) in this context.

Here I would like to digress by sharing the enlightening remarks of the Iranian Kurdish political scientist Abbas Vali, which he made last week about PJAK at an international conference entitled “New Regional Perspectives for Kurds.”

Abbas Vali made it clear that how ever much PJAK may be the “Iranian PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) branch,” due to the fact that they have “separate military organizations,” they are in fact separate. According to Vali, PJAK operates independently from the PKK in the areas where it is active, but this independence depends on the state of relations between the PKK and Iran.

Within this complex environment, PJAK ending its operations against Iran is a sign that the Tehran-Damascus axis is sidling up to the PKK.

As a result, the PKK will get political, material, logistical and military support. Such support which falls within Turkey’s borders could be destabilizing.

It’s true that it is not Iran’s duty alone to fill the void that the U.S. is leaving as it withdraws from Iraq. In this case Saudi Arabia and Turkey will both be in demand. We can predict the development of relationships between Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Administration in northern Iraq, in particular. But it is a mistake to expect northern Iraqi Kurds to intervene in the struggle against the PKK in return.