The debates between Republican candidates for next year’s presidential election are packed in tightly these days. Tonight, another one was held in South Carolina, an important state in many ways. Its primaries are held early, and it is one of the most conservative states in the country. The latter gives it considerable weight in Republican circles; it seems to be both trend-setting and representative. It is hard to tell which is the chicken and which is the egg, but the Republican that wins South Carolina almost always wins the party nomination. Therefore, there was much at stake in tonight’s debate.
The election machine still has a strong character of “Mitt Romney vs. the rest.” Most analysts consider the former Massachusetts governor the strongest candidate, but there is also widespread mistrust of him among Republicans. That’s partly due to his views on specific issues, where people feel he falls too far to the left, and partly because of his membership in the Mormon church, which is seen by many conservative Christian groups as a sect.
The problem for Romney’s detractors is that opponents that have sailed up to the front have had a tendency to self-destruct. First it was Michele Bachmann, the tea party favorite from Minnesota who gathered the anti-Romney forces under her banner. She sagged like a badly made soufflé when Texas Governor Rick Perry entered the stage. Perry himself has made several embarrassing blunders during his campaign, the latest being a few days ago when, in the middle of a debate, he forgot which three government agencies he wanted to disband.
After that, many Republicans gravitated toward Herman Cain, the Georgia businessman who admittedly lacks political experience but has done well in debates and has great credibility on economic issues. Cain, however, has lately been forced to defend himself against allegations of making sexual advances toward female coworkers. Regardless of whether the allegations are true or not, they have seriously damaged his campaign.
Now it seems Newt Gingrich, who suffered a crisis this summer after the collapse of his campaign team, is gaining new momentum. The former speaker of the House of Representatives, who, with his “Contract with America,” led the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994, has exhibited a hard-boiled and independent side during the past months that, in combination with his intellectual authority, is attracting Republicans.
Gingrich may well turn out to be Romney’s next main challenger, despite the fact that, in contrast to most other candidates, he usually refrains from criticizing the front-runner. I don’t think that Gingrich can go all the way, but he should be able to rise above his present level; in this kind of race one success usually leads to another, at least for a little while.
Newt Gingrich probably won’t be the next president of the United States, but he’s here now, even though he may be gone tomorrow.
Gingrich nästa dagslända?
De haglar tätt nu, debatterna mellan de republikanska kandidaterna inför nästa års presidentval. I natt hölls ytterligare en, denna gång i South Carolina. Den delstaten är viktig på flera sätt. Dels hålls dess primärval tidigt, och dessutom är den en av landets mest konservativa delstater. Det senare ger den stor tyngd i republikanska kretsar, och den förefaller vara både trendsättande och representativ. Det är naturligtvis svårt att säga vad som är hönan och ägget, men den republikan som vinner i South Carolina brukar så gott som undantagslöst vara den som även vinner partiets presidentnominering. Mycket stod således på spel i nattens debatt.
Fortfarande har valrörelsen väldigt mycket karaktär av ”Mitt Romney mot resten”. Den förre Massachusettsguvernören anses av de flesta bedömare vara den tyngsta kandidaten, men han är också misstrodd i breda republikanska kretsar. Dels för enskilda ställningstaganden, där han anses ligga fär långt till vänster, och dels eftersom han tillhör mormonkyrkan som av många högerkristna grupperingar betraktas som en sekt.
Problemet för Romneys belackare är att de motkandidater som seglar upp har haft en tendens att implodera. Först var det Michelle Bachmann, tea party-favoriten från Minnesota, som samlade anti-Romney-styrkorna bakom sig. Hon sjönk dock ihop som en sufflé när Texasguvernören Rick Perry dök upp på scenen. Perry har dock gjort bort sig rejält flera gånger under kampanjen, senast för några dagar sedan när han mitt under en debatt glömde bort vilka tre myndigheter han vill lägga ned.
Därefter graviterade många republikaner mot Herman Cain, affärsmannen från Georgia som visserligen saknar politisk erfarenhet men som gjort bra ifrån sig i debatterna och har stor trovärdighet i ekonomiska frågor. Cain har dock på senare tid tvingats försvara sig mot anklagelser om att ha gjort sexuella närmanden mot kvinnliga medarbetare, och oavsett påståendena stämmer eller ej så har de allvarligt skadat hans kampanj.
Nu förefaller Newt Gingrich, som senast i somras drabbades av kris när hans kampanjteam brakade samman, få vind i seglen igen. Den tidigare talmannen i representanthuset, som 1994 ledde det republikanska kongressövertagandet med sitt ”Contract with America”, har visat upp en tuff och självständig sida under de gångna månaderna, vilket parat med hans intellektuella tyngd nu lockar republikanska sympatier.
Gingrich kan mycket väl bli nästa huvudmotståndare för Romney, trots att han till skillnad från de flesta andra kandidaterna brukar avstå från att kritisera förhandsfavoriten. Jag tror inte att Gingrich kan gå hela vägen, men han borde kunna lyfta sig över sin nuvarande nivå, och i den här sortens sammanhang brukar den ena framgången föda den andra. Åtminstone ett litet tag.
Newt Gingrich lär inte bli USA:s nästa president, men han kan bli primärvalets nästa dagslända.
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These costly U.S. attacks failed to achieve their goals, but were conducted in order to inflict a blow against Yemen, for daring to challenge the Israelis.
Funny you don’t mention Ron Paul. Take a look a his positions, they are solid and logical, something quite different from the tripe coming from the people you mention, and from Obama.
Funny you don’t mention Ron Paul. Take a look a his positions, they are solid and logical, something quite different from the tripe coming from the people you mention, and from Obama.