Obama’s Long Road to a Second Term

The 2012 U.S. presidential election is less than one year away. Among the previous eight presidents before Obama, although six were able to go on to a second term, recent Gallup Polls reveal that Obama’s approval rating has dropped to a new low of only 38 percent. There’s almost no comparison between Obama’s soaring popularity that allowed him to win in 2008 and his present low approval rating. The following factors will influence whether or not Obama can win a second term.

The first factor is the domestic economy. Normally, the people care most about the economy and the employment situation. In the second quarter of this year, America’s economic growth rate was only 1.3 percent. On top of that, the European debt crisis dragged the U.S. economy closer to the threat of a second recession. In May, the national debt hit the $14.29 trillion ceiling, an amount almost on level with the GDP of 2010. Additionally, the U.S. financial deficit makes up nearly 10 percent of its GDP. By relying on the signing of bills intended to raise the debt ceiling and the financial deficit, Obama was able to resolve this crisis. However, soon after, the U.S. credit rating was lowered for the first time in almost a century. At the same time, the U.S. was experiencing both high inflation and high unemployment. Historically speaking, any president in office when the unemployment rate reaches over 7.2 percent is unlikely to win a second term. Currently, the U.S. economy is growing quite slowly, and the unemployment rate is up over 9 percent. If Obama cannot reinvigorate the economy and lower the unemployment rate in a relatively short period of time, his chance at a second term seems remote.

The second factor is competition. It is quite certain that Obama has no competition from within the Democratic Party. However, Obama’s political achievements are sparse, and the will of the people is beginning to change. The voters are again beginning to turn to the Republican candidates, but the Republican Party has still not put forth a candidate capable of squaring off against Obama. Presently, the candidates with the highest approval rating are former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Texas Governor Rick Perry and businessman Herman Cain. The latest polls reveal Cain’s voter approval ratings are the highest among the Republican Party candidates, with Romney in second. If the voters were to choose between Obama and Romney, the polls reveal the two candidates’ approval ratings to be about the same. If Obama were to individually face off against Cain or Perry, the polls show Obama to be completely in the lead.

Recently, Cain has been tangled up in stories about sex scandals, Perry has seen a drop in approval ratings as a result of his poor performance in the Republican Party candidate debates, and Romney’s moderate stances have become a “political mistake.” There still are many variables as to who will become the Republican Party’s final nominee. There are just over two months until the primary elections begin. If the Republican Party continues to hesitate, then that is Obama’s gain, and the Republican Party can do nothing but helplessly watch him win a second term.

The third factor is international politics. Although the U.S. was able to earn a “victory without triumph” in the shooting of bin Laden and the overthrow of the Libyan regime, the raising of the debt ceiling, the lowering of the credit rating and the “Occupy Wall Street” movement have all adversely affected the support rating of the Obama administration. Since taking office, Obama successively made the decisions to pull out from Iraq and Afghanistan, a move that won the support of the people fed up with war. Lately, calls for actions against Iran have again caused a tremendous stir. If Obama launches a war against Iran, only by earning a victory like that seen in the “Libya war model” will Obama potentially be able to earn some points for himself. If, however, the U.S. gets caught up in another long war, Obama’s chances for a second term will undoubtedly be affected.