Primaries: The Real Meetingis in South Carolina

It will be another few weeks before we find out if a candidate from the right wing of the Republican Party can stand up and challenge Mitt Romney for the party nomination in the presidential election.

Forget New Hampshire! The next primary that will matter will be that of South Carolina. Is it there, perhaps, that the conservative candidate capable of competing with Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination will emerge.

The Iowa caucuses emphatically stressed the dilemma of the Republicans. By propelling Rick Santorum, the highly conservative former senator from Pennsylvania to equal (25 percent) with Romney, who only leads by eight votes, voters showed the fracture of a party that hesitates between two choices. Should they rally around the candidate most capable of beating Barack Obama – that is to say, the former governor of Massachusetts – on the one hand, or opt for a candidate who best embodies the conservative values of the party? Here the game is still on and it will take several votes so that the “anti-Romney” candidate stands out.

New Hampshire seems to have almost accepted Romney – it is a neighboring state of Massachusetts, he has a holiday home there and it was a priority of his campaign team. Libertarian Ron Paul has supporters and may still hope to make a score, just as Rick Santorum could benefit from his win in Iowa. Even John Huntsman could be a breakthrough, as the last polls show a progression. So far, the former governor of Utah has attracted more press than other members of his party.

A Citadel of Evangelicals and Ultra-Conservatives

But we will not draw a lot of knowledge on the ability of the right wing of the party to get behind a single candidate prior to the primaries in South Carolina. This citadel of evangelicals and ultra-conservatives is in effect inclined to be a gift to the Mormon Romney, moreover deemed to be too moderate politically. Governor of Texas Rick Perry, whose campaign has been dismal so far, will try his luck (he skips New Hampshire) just like the flamboyant Newt Gingrich. The latter paid the price in Iowa, after a negative campaign mounted against him by Romney supporters, and will do anything to keep his hand in South Carolina. Finally, it is no longer necessary to reckon with Michele Bachmann, the muse of the Tea Party, who threw in the towel Wednesday.

Even if the Conservatives manage in the weeks ahead to rally around a candidate against the governor of Massachusetts, nothing indicates that it is really burdening his chances of winning the nomination. He is regarded as the one who has the best chance to beat Obama – he is well-funded, has the support of the establishment and on Wall Street and benefits from the lessons of his first attempt in 2008. On paper, Romney is winning. But the road up to the convention, to be held in Tampa, Florida in late August, is still long.