American and Iranian Threats Impact Regional Stability

U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced that an atomic bomb in the hands of Iran is a red line and the U.S. would use any means necessary, including an attack, to prevent this possibility. This means that the region’s stability is in danger and its peace is undermined. This possibility also prevents a calming of the situation, especially as tensions between America and Israel on one side increase with Iran on the other. These Iranian threats intensified after the U.S. issued its statements regarding the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, where most Gulf oil leaves the region. This is especially true of the U.S. challenge, which was clear two days ago when two American barges crossed the Straight of Hormuz without problems or threats. U.S. commanders said they would not allow Iran to disable traffic in the strait because it is an international corridor that is considered to be vital to regional and global prosperity. U.S. officials say that anyone that threatens to disrupt navigation “is clearly outside the community of nations.”

It is estimated that 40 percent of the world’s oil travels through this international strait. The United States can’t acquiesce to any major moves from Iran. Iran will not lose to the imposition of U.S. and world sanctions over its nuclear program. Observers especially believe that Iran has an arsenal of an estimated 2,000 mines that could be deployed in the straits. The Strait of Hormuz is not larger than five kilometers at its narrowest point. This would be effective in shutting down the strait, or at least blocking traffic significantly. This may be seen by the United States and other European countries as a clear act of war. Iran’s reaction could subject itself to the fierce reaction and the strength of the United States military, which has the support of many of the Gulf countries.

These Iranian threats are the reaction to the U.S.’ stated position on the export of Iranian oil to other countries. These media messages are just meant to deter some countries from supporting new sanctions against Iran because of its controversial nuclear program. This program would have significant effects on the region that would be both active and noticeable.

Statements were made by the first delegate to the president, Mohammad Reza Rahimi, that the imposition of sanctions on Iranian oil exports will lead to Iran stopping oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz in addition to more naval exercises. These exercises were initiated by Iran on Dec. 24 and lasted 10 days, according to messages from the Gulf Cooperation Council. Some European countries also joined in with their own remarks several weeks after the issuance of the IAEA report. The report indicated that Iran is working to build a nuclear weapon and missile launch system, synchronizing their completion within a few days of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Furthermore, there was a GCC summit in Riyadh which confirmed the council’s good intentions toward Iran and its willingness to take two steps for every one that Iran takes.

These Iranian and U.S. threats are a concern that may force the region into a “spiral” because these statements detract from the stability of the region. These events can be stopped at the current stage to avoid gazing upon a new fire being lit in the region. This would harm Iran, which exports its oil through the straits. In addition, Iran deciding to close Hormuz would prevent the arrival of 450,000 barrels of oil exports to Greece, Italy and Spain, especially if the European Union adopted a resolution that bans Iranian oil imports. This is especially true because Iran exports 2.4 million barrels per day.

If the world is talking about scenarios where the U.S. military strikes Iran, then Israel, who is fed by this oil, will be a major factor in curbing the rush of the Americans to take on this private military adventure. The closure of the strait will cause cause oil prices to rise above $200, which puts huge economic pressure on world economies who are facing major setbacks because of the debt issue. This excludes Iran from having to face such a strike, especially since the Persian Gulf area is of great importance. The very virtue of the Western geo-strategy focuses on the fact that Iran connects Central Asia with the West and the Arabian Sea as well as the Indian Ocean and Africa across the Red Sea. The area where they control the oil has no boundaries. This area contains about 730 billion barrels of oil, which makes this area strategically important to the Arab Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz acts as the main door to this oil and became important because of the exports to oil consuming countries, especially the industrial world which consumes more than 17 millions barrels a day.

Expert and political analyst Hassan Sweilim says the Strait of Hormuz is one of those most important waterways in the world because of the number of ships that move through it. The closing of the strait may give pretext to the launch of an international military operation against Iran by the United States and its allies, as well as the intensification of U.S. sea and air presence in the region. The fact is that America is currently focused on securing the Strait of Hormuz and preventing Iran from closing it in the first phase. Again, this is especially true because the closure could deal a major blow to Iran’s strength and that may pose a threat from the Iranian side to U.S. and British forces in the region.

So these U.S. and Iranian threats to close to the strait or perform a military strike on Iran would be very risky economically and militarily. It will negatively impact the countries that depend on the oil industry by jamming the wheel of production. Countries such as China, Korea and Japan will be affected more, unlike the United States and Europe, which have enough strategic reserves to last about four months.

There is great hope that these threats from both sides will subside and put an end to the escalation and confrontation between Iran and the United States. The solution to the rising crisis between the two sides can be reached through dialogue and peaceful means. Iran must work on the statements that it uses in order to bring the crisis from the bring of the abyss. Iran’s action will greatly affect the stability and security of the region at this sensitive and serious stage.