Choosing a President for America

If tradition can still be seen as a trustworthy predictor in U.S. politics, President Obama can start facing the one who will be confronting him in the upcoming campaign for the White House. That man is Mitt Romney. There has never been a time when a Republican winning state caucuses in both Iowa and New Hampshire has lost his party’s nomination as candidate for the presidential elections.

However, the cause of this determination is not the character of the Republican voters, the successful coordination of the campaign teams, the credibility of the political message or even the political characters involved. In this competition, the purpose being to sort between candidates wishing for the complete and unconditional support of the Republican Party for the election, it seems to have more to do with a simple principle of investment logic. No presidential campaign in the United States can be supported by its own funds. Not even King Croesus’s could! Therefore in order to handle the losses, donations from supporters, both individuals and corporations, are very much needed.

In the U.S., keeping track of these contributions is a legal obligation, 100 percent transparent and kept under strict control by both American citizens and the institutions meant to ensure the fairness of the election process. Similar to when gamblers place their bets while the race is still on, a large number of Republican supporters will be more than willing to spend money to support a candidate who already has an advantage. He has a better chance to cross the finish line first and of course, no one wants to bet on the loser! This is the mechanism which will surely turn the initial winner from Iowa and New Hampshire into the favorite candidate of the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla.

If we look at things from the perspective of the current president and future candidate of the Democratic Party, the situation on the Republican side is half good news, half bad. The good news consists of the future candidate’s predictability and his extended exposure as a target for Obama’s campaign managers. In other words, the Democratic team has plenty of time to carefully plan the rejection of uncomfortable subjects of attack, as well as defense tactics.

The bad news concerns the physical principle of elections. Launching a candidate is like using a slingshot: The speed and, hence, the target impact is dependent on the weight of the projectile and on the stretching of the rubber band. To put it mildly, the Republicans have the time and the means to give their candidate the biggest moment possible!

If the two competitors have already chosen their pole positions, eliminating most of the uncertainties concerning the identity of the candidates, the topics of the future presidential campaign are no mystery either: It’s the economy, dummy! And this time, the predictability of the topics resides not only in the tradition of the American politics but also, sadly, in reality. The economic topics and, by association, the social ones, have never dominated like they do today the preoccupations, fears, hopes and expectations of the American people. On the other hand, now more than during any other presidential campaign, the number of radical American voters is overwhelming. Also, the voters are deeply divided between incompatible views of how to solve basic economic problems.

Starting with the classic political topics, inevitably linked to the difference between “the haves” and “the have nots,” all the way to the options regarding the type of capitalism that Americans are willing to support and to blame, the presidential debates will most likely cover a wide range of topics concerning attempts to create jobs and develop initiatives and resources which could bring America back into the world economy game. Every step will be put under a microscope, torn apart, argued and counter-argued.

The pieces have already been placed on the chess board of the American presidential competition and the opening move is well-known. Therefore, we know what to play. The beauty and tension of the show will be maintained by the craft and possibly the errors that each of the players will make. Either way, it is going to be a long game and, judging by the way things look, it will be a close one won with an advantage of position and, at most, an extra pawn!