Is Iran Worth a Sunken Carrier?

Could the United States use the “false colors” strategy to justify a war against Iran?

What is the “false colors” strategy? It is a secret operation led by a government, corporation or any other organization that is conducted by forces seemingly unconnected with that group. The end goal of such an operation is to have the blame for starting aggression shifted onto someone else, for example, a foreign government or a rival ethnic group.

Is it possible that the United States could resort to such a strategy to find an excuse to conduct military operations against Iran? The United States cannot count on the blessing of the United Nations; Russia and China will exercise their veto in the Security Council. If the United States wants to start a war with Iran, it would have to convince those two countries that Iran is a threat to global security. Washington would also have to convince international public opinion, a task which would be very difficult, especially after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Everyone remembers that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, just like today’s Iran, was accused by the Americans of developing nuclear weapons. However, it became clear when the red, white and blue flag flew over Baghdad that Saddam did not have any weapons and probably could not have produced them even if he wanted to. It’s not surprising that the public is treating the Iran situation with a certain degree of skepticism.

How can one convince the skeptics that the soldiers of Uncle Sam should follow in the footsteps of Alexander the Great and conquer the descendants of the Persians? This is where a false colors strategy could help. The Persian Gulf will be visited by the carrier USS Enterprise, a ship that will be scrapped next year. Why are the Americans sending such an aging ship to such a dangerous area? There are those who claim that the Americans are sending the Enterprise in order to provoke an attack and to put the blame squarely upon Iran. Wouldn’t a sunken carrier be sufficient proof that Iran is ruled by dangerous people with whom negotiation is futile? The proponents of such a theory also point out that sinking the Enterprise would be rational both from a military and economic standpoint. It would save the U.S. a lot of money to sink the ship instead of having it scrapped back home.

History is witness to the use of the false colors strategy in order to accelerate conflict. The Poles should remember the so called Gliwice Provocation, in which German soldiers disguised as Polish partisans attacked a radio station in Gliwice. This episode was the excuse for Adolf Hitler to attack Poland and start World War II. Another operation of such kind was Operation Northwoods, which called for CIA attacks in the United States in order to bolster public opinion in favor of attacking Castro’s Cuba. That operation, however, was not carried out.

With regards to conspiracy theories, they are mostly untrue, with the exception being those which can indeed be proven with time. How will it be this time?