Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu is currently in Washington for an urgent meeting regarding Syria and Iran. Rather than America pressuring Turkey about Syria, this time Turkey is pressing America to prevent Homs from becoming “another Sarajevo.”
These are no ordinary times in the Middle East; there’s revolution in Syria and the prospect of an Israeli attack on Iran is making Turkey’s hair stand on end. The marathon of meetings with the White House, Hillary Clinton and the Pentagon that Davutoğlu will undertake today should be seen as anything but ordinary. Rather, it could affect the fate of the Arab Spring and the Mideast in the near future. For this reason, we shouldn’t be surprised that Davutoğlu’s White House meeting is scheduled to last for more than 10 hours or that Hillary Clinton has reserved seven hours for Turkey in her schedule tomorrow. However, a few surprising things do await in this visit. For instance, as a journalist with first-hand experience observing Turkish-American relations, I am accustomed to America presenting a “list of demands” to Turkey, and Ankara responding to those demands broodingly.
“We Cannot Stand By and Watch These Attacks”
This time it is just the opposite. Turkey has a very clear demand for the United States: “Don’t let Syria become another Bosnia. We don’t want a second Sarajevo on our doorstep.” But, why the warning? Why is Turkey putting “pressure” on Washington because of Syria? The reason is that, despite the official statements and seemingly stern warnings, it doesn’t look like the U.S. has any real intention of making a move in Syria. It was hard for me to comprehend this before coming to Washington. Within 48 hours of being here, however, I understood clearly — all of the officials I met with kept explaining to me at length how a buffer zone at the border would not be created as Ankara wanted, how a “humanitarian corridor” to help blockaded cities like Homs and Hama wasn’t possible, how the U.N. wouldn’t give permission and how no military personnel would be present at the discussions.
“No Good Option”
“Unfortunately, there is no easy option with Syria,” said a top-level official. He said they hoped Assad would fall on his own as a result of internal uprising. The others all said, similarly, that getting dragged into Syria’s civil war by helping the rebels, known as the “Army for a Free Syria,” would be dangerous. They said they didn’t know the rebels, that they had no charisma and that there was nothing to be done except exert diplomatic pressure. It may seem strange, but it’s almost as if the Obama administration turned to Turkey and said, “Sorry, but this is all we can do. Please overthrow Assad for us.” In an interview with the Washington Post over the weekend, a top-level official said, “What frustrates . . . us is that there are no silver bullets here. There are no good options.” Another official stated that there was no choice but to exert economic pressure on Assad.
The Army for a Free Syria
In short, America doesn’t appear prepared to shoulder any responsibility in Syria other than hard statements and soft diplomacy. The option of living side by side with Bashar al-Assad, who kills 30-40 of his own people every day, is no longer acceptable for Turkey. Turkey believes that the U.S. should head up a list of outside countries who should be active — not hopeless — on the Syrian issue. In his communications with the White House today, Davutoğlu will bring a series of alternatives to the table, such as a “Libya-style” intervention or a “coalition of the willing.” Unlike Washington, Ankara believes that the Army for a Free Syria, comprised of deserters from the Syrian military, has gained considerable strength. In communication with the U.S. Congress on Thursday, Davutoğlu told Congress members that the ranks of the Army for a Free Syria had grown to 40,000. The foreign minister also stressed that “humanitarian aid” to Syria’s cities is possible. Turkey is also not opposed to a “buffer zone” in places like Idlib near Antakya [in Turkey] or on the border with Jordan, in the event of a rising death toll within Syria and an exodus of refugees. Turkey does not intend, however, to carry out this work on its own. It wants the assistance of the Arab nations and the support of the United States.
Pressure on the U.S. from Turkey
Tomorrow, Davutoğlu will be pressing Hillary Clinton and the White House to restart diplomatic relations with Iran. Ankara hasn’t touched this issue for two years, ever since persuading Iran to accept a nuclear swap deal, only to have it rejected by Washington. The probability of Israel making an airstrike on Iran, however, has sent Turkey back into action. It is seeking to bring Iranian Foreign Minister Saleh to the table with Western nations to begin nuclear talks once again. As I said, this is a sight I’m not used to seeing. I’ve been coming to Washington and observing Turkish-American relations for some time and I’ve never seen Turkey pressure the U.S. in this way.
What Was a Fight in Congress Last Year Now Brings Hearty Praise
This visit was just full of surprises! I will show you this photo from Washington, just as I found it. Before I came here, I was aware of the popularity that the Arab Spring and the missile shield had brought Turkey. It was a total honeymoon for Tayyip Erdoğan and Obama, who described their relationship as a “friendship.” To tell you the truth, I hadn’t expected so much, given that Congress has been badgering Turkey with claims of Armenian genocide and human rights violations.
On Thursday, Davutoğlu met with the “heavy hitters” of Congress: committee chairmen, minority and majority leaders, Committee on Foreign Relations, John McCain, Joe Lieberman and John Kerry. The day was not without its smiles. The meeting with the Committee on Foreign Relations, which had ended harshly the previous year due to the Mavi Marmara incident, ended with talk of Syria and the Arab Spring. One congressional official that I interviewed by email mentioned our minister’s “philosophical depth.” Another official praised Turkey, saying, “Mr. Minister, you say you are not a model for the Arab world, but in fact that is how we see you.”
Although they had just seen Davutoğlu a week ago in Munich, “heavy hitters” McCain, Lieberman, and Lindsey Graham insisted on having an hour with him. They then showed him around the Senate. During last year’s visit, it was the usual bloodbath with the Committee on Foreign Relations. In the wake of the Mavi Marmara incident, members of Congress leveled heavy criticisms at Turkey. It got to the point that Davutoğlu responded to a California representative by saying, “You cannot speak to a Foreign Minister of the Turkish Republic in this way!” and stormed out of the room.
There Were No Criticisms on the Agenda
This time around, both American and Turkish sources report that Cyprus, freedom of expression in Turkey and relations with Israel didn’t even make it onto the agenda! The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who had previously criticized Turkey over its relations with Israel, this time gave Ahmet Davutoğlu a hug after the meeting. As I said, I have been covering Washington for 40 years and I have never seen a meeting like this. A top-level Turkish diplomat stated, “We are surprised as well. But this atmosphere is the crossroads of the Arab Spring and the erection of the missile shield. A day can come when the winds will blow the other way.”
Until that time, the Turkish government will find the friendship in Washington that was lacking in Brussels.
It seems to me that there is more than one way to intervene here — more options than riding into Syria, guns blazing (which would, of course, require the approval of the UNSC). So maybe Turkey should step up to the plate, because the U.S. is slowly but surely withdrawing from the greater Middle East and environs. A power vacuum is being created: is there a rational actor in the region who can fill it? (The “rational” qualification pretty much eliminates Israel as a candidate.)