America Crowds Russia in the Post-Soviet Space

Azerbaijan’s decision to raise the cost of the rent on the Gabalinsk radar station is in the US interest

The Russian proposal to the Americans in 2007, about joint use of the Gabalinsk radar station, probably turned out to be rushed or not completely thought through. The press noted at the time that it was done without preliminary consultations with Azerbaijan, on whose territory the station is located. At any rate, the proposal turned out to be fraught with consequences, which are only now becoming apparent.

This year, the 10-year lease of the radar station, formulated by an agreement “on the status, principles, and conditions of use of the Gabalinsk radar station,” will come to an end. Talks about its continuation, barely begun, hit a roadblock, reports “Kommersant.” Any new lease agreement one way or another always implies new, higher payments. However, this time the sum which Azerbaijan would like to receive from Russia unexpectedly rose at a geometric rate: from $7 million per year to $300 million. As it turns out, 42 times higher than before. Given that Russia had hoped to continue the agreement another 25 years, the new rental rate plans could cost an astronomical sum: $7.5 billion.

Sources in the Russian Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs told the paper that the complications in the talks started at the first meeting of the coming year, between Minister of Defense Anatoly Serdyukov and the Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, Yagub Eyubov, heading the negotiation team for the radar station at Gabala. The meeting took place in Moscow in mid-February. Informed of the course of the talks, a member of the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that there were complications on discussion of the rent costs, but refused to comment on the rise in Azerbaijan’s financial appetite.

According to the terms of the agreement still in effect, it is automatically renewed for sequential three-year periods, unless either party submits documents to the other stating an intention to terminate the agreement, at least six months before the end of the current term. Thus, if no agreement is reached on the price by June 9, it will be terminated.

In November of last year after the meeting of the Ministers of Defense of Russia and Azerbaijan, Anatoly Serdyukov and Safar Abiyev, the Russian minister announced that the parties had agreed on all points other than finances. At that moment, Baku’s appetites did not stretch so far and amounted to $15 million per year.

To resolve the financial issue, a specially formed committee of the Russian ministries of defense, foreign affairs, and industry appeared at the talks at the beginning of December, and attempted to resolve the differences, but only made things worse: at first Baku raised the price to $150 million, then later, doubled it.

“This sum is based on nothing and is much too high; we will work to get it reduced, significantly so,” said a member of the Ministry of Defense. “We still hope to reach an agreement.” Another highly placed military official was more decisive: “If Baku does not moderate its financial appetites, we will leave Gabala.” However, official representatives of the Russian military department still radiate optimism: the talks are going constructively, Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said today.

A possible departure from Gabala would not be catastrophic for the Russian army but it would be painful. Functionally, the “old horse” could be partially replaced by a newer radar station in Armavir, “Voronezh-DM,” but its second segment, which must track missile launches in Gabala’s zone of responsibility, is not yet operational.

However, even that is not the issue. After our departure, says Leonid Ivashov, the president of the Academy of Geopolitical Affairs, the Americans could use the territory of Azerbaijan (though not specifically the Daryal early-warning radar, since we would remove the equipment from there) against Russia and Iran. Moreover, Moscow will lose one of its trump cards in talks with Washington on the European Missile Defense Shield. Needless to say, this was an appropriate moment to choose to raise the price by 42-fold.

But there is another assumption, perceived among diplomats. The Azerbaijani position on Gabala is not so much a manifestation of mercantilism, as much as it aims to take revenge on Russia for preventing the laying of a gas pipeline on the bottom of the Caspian Sea between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. Gas from it, mixed with Azerbaijani gas, would go into the Nabucco pipeline, which competes with the South Stream pipeline, and Moscow is trying to prevent that.

The most interesting thing in this story is that the CIS partners are requiring Russia to sacrifice their own interests in the post-Soviet space. The Russian army is threatened not only with the loss of its military base in Kant, the possible closure of which was hinted at last weekend by Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev, but also even the loss of a strategically important objective in Azerbaijan.

Remember, the U.S. has many times spoken of the possibility of including Gabala in its European Missile Defense Shield. The active range of this radar station is about 6,000 kilometers. It was put into operation in 1984, and into military defense duty in February 1985. The radar station is part of the Russian early-warning system against missile attacks and is designed to record launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles in the southern hemisphere, including from U.S. ballistic missile submarines in the Indian Ocean area, and to control the air and space regions to the south. Undoubtedly, it would greatly benefit the U.S. for protection from Iranian missile launches, which are officially one of the reasons for the development of the European Missile Defense Shield.

Bloggers on the Internet, discussing the issue of the rapid appreciation of Gabala, remark that it wouldn’t be bad for Russia to examine the activities of the Azerbaijani Diaspora, the largest in the country, including the wealthiest businessmen with fortunes worth billions; whether they conduct their business correctly, pay their taxes, etc. And to begin perhaps with guest workers, in the case of the pilots convicted in Tajikistan last year, this helped somewhat.