Romney Wins Most States, But Loses the Night

At first glance, Mitt Romney had a good Super Tuesday. He won in six of the 10 states. Yet his candidacy is starting to feel more and more uncomfortable. The ‘inevitable’ candidate for many is unable to shake off the competition.

The best example of that was the first prize of Super Tuesday, Ohio. No Republican has ever won the presidential elections without winning this swing state.

After an exciting results night, Romney finally beat Rick Santorum by a narrow margin. But if you realize that Romney spent more than five times more money on ads and had the support of the Republican Party members, then Santorum’s performance is actually much more special.

Besides Ohio, Mitt Romney also won in Idaho, Vermont, Virginia, Alaska and his home state of Massachusetts.

Impetus Tennessee

Rick Santorum won in three states: Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Dakota. The win in Tennessee was, especially, a boost. Romney spent much more money here as well, yet Santorum managed to win convincingly. Romney is not doing well in the southern states, and that is just where a lot of votes will be cast in the coming months.

The Republican campaign has been unprecedentedly negative. Of the broadcasted ads in Ohio, a full 96 percent was negative. More and more Republicans fear that the primaries are damaging the candidates instead of stimulating them. With the arrival of super PACs, a wealthy supporter can keep on pumping unlimited money into their favorite candidate’s campaign.

Money and organization

Romney is the one with the most money and the best organization, but he still has not won the hearts of the religious and conservative voters. They still see nothing in his candidacy and continue to support the other candidates.

Santorum has the best chance to beat Romney. For him, it would be advantageous if Newt Gingrich (who today won his home state, Georgia) or Ron Paul would withdraw from the race. That way, the ‘anti-Romney vote’ is divided between fewer candidates. For now, that does not seem to be the case.

1,144 delegates

In the end, only one thing counts in the primaries: who is the first to collect 1,144 delegates. That person wins the nomination of his party and takes on Barack Obama in November. Romney is the one in the lead and therefore has the best chance to become the Republican presidential candidate.

The question is whether he stands a chance against Obama. Recent polls show that more and more Americans have a negative image of Romney. Obama’s organization and campaign funds are of a completely different order than those of Santorum or Gingrich. Therefore, the question is: if Romney already has trouble beating them, how can he ever defeat Obama in November? Romney won the most states today, but for many, he is also the big loser.