The Trump–Musk Conflict: Consequences*
Published in Actual Commentary
(Russia) on 6 June 2025
by Maxim Minaev (link to original)
*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.
The public conflict between President Donald Trump and his former special adviser, the entrepreneur Elon Musk, has exposed deep contradictions within the Republican administration. The once “dream team” that helped power Trump’s 2023–2024 presidential campaign is now falling apart — and the online spat is likely to have serious consequences for both.
For Trump, a dramatic break with Musk means the loss of arguably the most prominent and influential ally in the president’s inner circle. Musk’s support was one of the key factors in Trump’s success. After the election, many Americans associated businessman and innovator with the administration’s efforts to radically reform the executive branch. Now that relationship has gone sour, Trump may walk away from those reform plans, something that could cost him politically.
The conflict could also push Silicon Valley’s business elite further away from the GOP. Musk was one of the few bridges between the tech world and the Republican Party. His involvement helped win over — or at least maintain a sense of loyalty from — figures like Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Sundar Pichai, all of whom attended Trump’s inauguration in January. Now with Musk’s departure from White House,, those tech leaders no longer have any obligation the Republican Party and may feel free to resume their traditional ties with and openly support the Democratic Party again.
Finally the Republican Party and Trump with it also stand to lose a major donor. Media leaks have suggested that Musk may back out of his pledge to donate $100 million to Republican-aligned groups. If that happens, it could seriously hurt the party’s chances in the 2026 midterms.
However, the split isn’t without risks for Musk, either. His political influence in Washington largely derives from his ties to the Republican establishment. Now that he’s clashed with Trump in public, he could find himself sidelined or ignored altogether. Starting his own political party is unlikely to be a viable solution: American politics makes it nearly impossible for a new third party to challenge the two-party system.
On top of that, Musk could lose his influence over key government programs. The White House may pressure agencies like NASA to exclude his companies from future space exploration projects.
The author, Maksim Minaev, Ph.D. in Political Science, is head of the Foreign Policy Research Department at the Center for Political Studies.
The public conflict between President Donald Trump and his former special adviser, the entrepreneur Elon Musk, has exposed deep contradictions within the Republican administration. The once “dream team” that helped power Trump’s 2023–2024 presidential campaign is now falling apart — and the online spat is likely to have serious consequences for both.
For Trump, a dramatic break with Musk means the loss of arguably the most prominent and influential ally in the president’s inner circle. Musk’s support was one of the key factors in Trump’s success. After the election, many Americans associated businessman and innovator with the administration’s efforts to radically reform the executive branch. Now that relationship has gone sour, Trump may walk away from those reform plans, something that could cost him politically.
The conflict could also push Silicon Valley’s business elite further away from the GOP. Musk was one of the few bridges between the tech world and the Republican Party. His involvement helped win over — or at least maintain a sense of loyalty from — figures like Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Sundar Pichai, all of whom attended Trump’s inauguration in January. Now with Musk’s departure from White House,, those tech leaders no longer have any obligation the Republican Party and may feel free to resume their traditional ties with and openly support the Democratic Party again.
Finally the Republican Party and Trump with it also stand to lose a major donor. Media leaks have suggested that Musk may back out of his pledge to donate $100 million to Republican-aligned groups. If that happens, it could seriously hurt the party’s chances in the 2026 midterms.
However, the split isn’t without risks for Musk, either. His political influence in Washington largely derives from his ties to the Republican establishment. Now that he’s clashed with Trump in public, he could find himself sidelined or ignored altogether. Starting his own political party is unlikely to be a viable solution: American politics makes it nearly impossible for a new third party to challenge the two-party system.
On top of that, Musk could lose his influence over key government programs. The White House may pressure agencies like NASA to exclude his companies from future space exploration projects.
The author, Maksim Minaev, Ph.D. in Political Science, is head of the Foreign Policy Research Department at the Center for Political Studies.
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