Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced during a meeting with editors from Western newspapers that Russia is focusing all of its energy on preventing war with Iran. How can this war be avoided?
This question is posed today by many people in our country. The explosion in the East may destabilize the situation in the South Caucasus and in other post-Soviet territories. Foreign wars, as it is known, do not exist.
On March 5, 2012, the president of the United States, Barack Obama, is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The main question during the course of discussion between the two leaders will be Iran’s nuclear program and the geopolitical situation in the East. What will the American president and the Israeli Prime Minister agree upon? Will they stop the development of a military crisis with Iran or, on the contrary, will they want to push for a forceful outcome? The answer does not depend solely on one party.
Little is Apparent to Anyone
If politics were rational, then it would be immediately clear that the military conflict between the United States and Iran, or the Islamic Republic and the coalition of the states joined with Israel, will not result in a positive outcome for anyone.
The extraction of oil and gas will decrease and the price of energy resources will climb as a result of war, and this will impact the West, beginning with Europe (it will be difficult for others to survive as well). This will not be advantageous to Russia. Under the current circumstances, the West will become more frugal, and this will decrease demand and lower the price of Russian energy resources.
Nothing of this sort occurred in the 1970s. The consequences of this type of crisis and the collapse of the Soviet Union “sent shouts” throughout the expanse of Eurasia.
A military outcome is also not favorable for China. China’s prosperity is determined to a large extent by the purchasing power of Western demand, which is not only for mass market goods, but also for souvenirs purchased from Washington D.C., possessing the label “Made in China.”
Israel cannot be named the beneficiary of this military scenario. Tel Aviv has not been able, up to the present time, to recover from the “Arab Spring” and from the unclear opinions related to the “Islamization” of Egypt and Libya.
Today, if many countries of the Arab World and Iran take the original conflict to Syria, then the introduction of Israel into the open conflict will dramatically increase the number of opponents fighting against “world Zionism.”
The War Scenario
Regarding Iranian interests, it is important to understand that the Islamic Republic does not stand to receive any specific benefit. Iran’s infrastructure will undergo a massive attack in the event of war.
During the multi-year war with Iraq, Iranians grew accustomed to tolerating hardship and being victims. However, it is unlikely that feelings of happiness will surface for ordinary Iranians. After all, war is a difficult experience. Additionally, Iran clearly will not become wealthy if the country is deprived of oil exports.
Unfortunately, politics is not as rational as we would like it to be. Iran arouses a little too much emotion for America, which is not able to apologize for its failure in 1979. At that time, economic sanctions against Iran were not able to help the United States. The carbon-rich Islamic Republic began to grow of its own will, without showing deference to America, who was exercising influence in the region. Furthermore, in Tehran, the United States is perceived as “the great Satan.”
Even a minor action from either side is capable of causing large consequences. Realists reaching for the best outcome, however, hope for this will not materialize.
Therefore, we need to accept negative scenarios and be prepared for them; nobody envisions a light “blitzkrieg.”
Russia may receive a new wave of refugees. It is entirely possible to imagine that Iran, under the pretext of conflict with the Israeli-Azerbaijani military partnership and the purchase of technology from Baky, may decide to strike a blow to Azerbaijan, which directly shares a border with Russia’s Dagestan.
But even if the attack on Azerbaijan does not occur, then Baky may wish to take advantage of the situation and accelerate the military outcome in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia’s Decision
Moscow must make a difficult decision. Separatist groups, who have influence with the Russian elite, will be divided in their sympathy. The strong bond with Armenia or Azerbaijan, after the loss of influence in Georgia, coincides in a large way with Russian interests in the South Caucasus.
It is to Moscow’s advantage to preserve the positive relationship with Yerevan and Baky, having achieved a compromise in regards to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which did not end in a decisive victory for either side.
War in Iran and the area surrounding Iran will place a fracture in the status quo; a search for new options is needed. This is a difficult problem for a present-day Russia that is attempting to distract the country from other domestic and foreign policy decisions of equal importance
After its presidential elections, Russia will not become less influential. Therefore, the “Iranian Spring” and the year of Iran are not clear to us. In the near future, Russia stands to possibly gain due to the rise in gas prices. However, the short-term effect will most likely not turn out to be strategically lucky.
It is unclear how the “Iranian card” will be played in this critical time. Russia has an urgent mission — swiftly diversifying economic development, overcoming their status of predominantly supplying raw materials, strengthening “smart” economics and developing advanced technology.
It would have been better if the Iranian game became a game of nerves. For all of its participants, from Washington to Tehran, right up to the “outlying regions,” it is important now to transition the military conflict to a pragmatic and diplomatic approach — to a conflict of interests without extremes.
It is possible to calm “hot heads” from different sides and to transition to deciding critical problems instead of escalating tension.
Sergei Markedonov was invited as a specialist from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC for Russian news.
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