Rapid Rise in Gas Prices Might Obstruct Obama’s Path to Reelection

Rapid Rise in Gas Prices Might Obstruct Obama’s Path to Reelection

As the state of affairs in the Middle East becomes tenser each day, and as global demands continue to grow, international gas prices have shot up recently. Seeing as gasoline plays an especially important role in American society, analysts say the issue of gas prices could become one of the crucial topics of discussion in the 2012 presidential elections; it could even directly threaten Obama’s quest for reelection.

The Rise in Gas Prices is Hard to Reverse

Recently, the retail price of gasoline in the U.S. has been constantly shooting up. Presently, the national average for regular grade gasoline has already reached $3.59 per gallon (or about $6 per liter). Compared to last month, this is an increase of 20 U.S. cents, and compared to the same time last year, it has risen 12 percent. In California and other densely populated areas, however, the price of gas has surpassed $4 per gallon. Market analysts have generally predicted that the rise in gas prices over the short term will be hard to suppress. By this summer, gasoline could break the $5 per gallon mark.

The U.S. government and experts in think tanks generally believe that the main factors causing the previous rise in gas prices is the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East and the rapid rise of energy needs in emerging economies. Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. has joined with the European Union and other allies, constantly increasing economic sanctions against Iran in an attempt to reduce Iran’s oil exports and to put a stop to its development of nuclear weapons. Iran fought back by threatening to cut off the West from its oil supply. At the same time, rumors of Israel’s plan to initiate a military strike have also aroused great attention and concern in the international community and in the crude oil market. On the other hand, the White House said that the need for energy among China, India and other large emerging powers is constantly growing and is a long-term factor in the rise of global gas prices. In this context, White House press secretary Jay Carney said earlier this week that there is currently no miracle drug that can cure the problem of rising gas prices or any of the other issues that bother the American people.

Oil Prices Touch a Nerve with the General Election

As everyone knows, the U.S. is a “nation on wheels.” According to statistics, gasoline expenses make up about 8 percent of an American family’s expenditures. With the fluctuation in gas prices affecting the personal interests of every American, it has thus become a political issue that is hard to ignore. Brian Darling, an expert at America’s Heritage Foundation, explained that the price of gas at the pump reminds people of the fluctuation in oil prices and has a big impact on their finances. Some people will have no choice but to postpone their retirement or vacation plans. At the same time, rising oil prices always spur increases in the price of food and other commodities.

Historically, oil prices have had a significant impact on the presidential election. In his time, President Carter was encumbered by oil prices and failed in his reelection bid. Darling said that President Obama could also face the same problem because, if the price of oil continues to rise, the American public will put their grievances on him. While the American economy has recently shown signs of a turnaround and the unemployment rate has fallen somewhat, the continually rising price of oil is clearly bad news for the reelection-seeking Obama.

The price of oil has already made Obama vigilant. On Feb. 23, Obama purposely made a public speech about energy policy. At a political gathering held at Florida’s University of Miami, he stated that he fully understands that the rise in oil prices will hurt everyone and that the present situation makes it clear that America needs a detailed “all-of-the-above” energy policy, which includes increasing domestic output, developing of alternative energy and improving energy efficiency standards, to name a few.

Obama said that America’s domestic oil output has already reached its highest levels in eight years, and the government is preparing to open up some areas of the Arctic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico for oil exploration. Yet, at the same time, he expressed that increasing the nation’s oil production is not going to solve the problem once and for all. Anyone who proclaims that the price of gas can be decreased by merely expanding domestic drilling either doesn’t have a basic understanding of the actual situation or is deliberately telling lies.

Obama’s words were clearly meant as a political counterattack against his Republican rivals. Prior to this, Republicans had repeatedly used the price of oil to attack Obama’s energy policy, and the question of whether to expand domestic oil extraction has been a long-term focal point that the two parties tirelessly debate. During the 2008 general election, with the price of oil rising, Obama’s competitor and opponent Senator John McCain became an advocate of expanding America’s oil drilling, for a time winning a high level of support.

A spokesman for Speaker of the House John Boehner, Brendan Buck, said, “The president would like everyone to forget that gas prices have doubled over the past three years while he consistently blocked and slowed the production of American-made energy.” Meanwhile, Obama has responded by urging Congress to end the subsidies it has provided to the oil industry. He said that any politician who wants to continue to keep these subsidies must explain to voters why oil companies are taking even more money out taxpayers’ pockets.*

Analysts here pointed out that in the face of soaring oil prices, no matter whether it is Obama’s “all-of-the-above” energy policy or the plan to open up oil exploration that has been touted by Republicans, the political significance of the policies will be far greater than their actual effectiveness. Obama’s complicated “prescription” is far from a new idea; some of its contents is distant water that cannot quench present thirst. For example, to Obama’s suggestion that creating petroleum products from algae might replace 17 percent of oil imports, industry experts say that it will be a long time before mass production of alternative fuels can be achieved.

Democratic Party opinion pollster Geoff Garin warned that an average of $4 per gallon of gas is a critical point. When the average breaks this threshold, there will be a clear change in people’s attitudes; complaint and anger will rapidly rise. For Obama, this is no small challenge. Election campaign experts believe that, since the trend of rising oil prices is difficult to reverse, Obama should implement a strategy of coming clean with all of the predicaments he is facing as early as possible, letting voters believe that the measures he is currently taking might be able to solve this difficult problem.

*Editor’s Note: Quotes were interpreted by author and may not accurately reflect the statements of the original speakers.