US Has No “Magic Potion” to Eliminate al-Qaida

A few days before the anniversary of last year’s deadly raid against bin Laden, the U.S. secretary of defense believes that al-Qaida, although weakened, remains a threat.

One year after the death of its leader Osama bin Laden, al-Qaida is weakened but has still not disappeared. “There is no silver bullet to destroy” the Islamist network, which remains “a threat,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta acknowledged this past Friday, just days before the anniversary of the May 2, 2011, raid in Pakistan carried out by Navy Seals. The U.S. secretary of defense, however, considers “the United States to be safer” since the death of bin Laden and that al-Qaida has been considerably weakened by “the elimination of its ideological and spiritual leaders.”

Also on Friday, a senior U.S. counter-terrorism expert assured the public that al-Qaida’s core was unlikely to repeat attacks similar to September 11. Deputy Director of National Intelligence Robert Cardillo added that an attack involving chemical, biological or depleted uranium is highly unlikely during the upcoming year.

The weakening of al-Qaida, especially due to the elimination of its executives by U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, began “at least two years” before the death of its leader, according to an anonymous covert intelligence official.

The main risk: the lone wolf

However, the terrorist network in the meantime has decentralized factions in Yemen, Sahel, Iraq and Somalia that remain more active than ever. The U.S. intelligence agencies expect to witness a “vigorous debate” within the organization between supporters of attacks against the West and the supporters of “local” jihad in the countries the factions operate.

In Europe and the United States, the main risk is the “lone wolf,” as occurred in the case of Major Nidal Hassan, the party responsible for the 2009 Fort Hood massacre.

“People like Merah, acting alone, who acquire weapons on their own, are the most difficult to stop,” said the same counter-terrorism official.

The United States also fears attacks by local branches of al-Qaida who attack U.S. interests worldwide, particularly al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Iraqi branch of the organization, which could benefit from instability in Syria. There is less concern, however, over al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), as this branch is viewed less as a real terrorist threat and more as a criminal organization seeking to finance itself by removing foreigners.

President Barack Obama will address these issues during an interview with NBC, which will air next Wednesday. For the moment, the president has allowed reporters access to the “situation room,” a secure location in the White House. According to NBC, this access is “unprecedented.”