What’s at Stake with Obama’s Acceptance of Gay Marriage

In the run-up to re-election, the president changed his stance on gay marriage.

According to President Barack Obama, his views on marriage between homosexuals — which he now says he supports — have “evolved” over the years, especially through the eyes of his daughters, who could not understand why their friends’ gay parents did not have the same rights as everyone else.

In fact, according to people close to his circle, the president was already convinced that it was a step that he would have to take sooner or later.

What everyone was wondering yesterday was, why mess with such an explosive issue right in the final stretch of his run for re-election?

And although the answers differ, no one doubts that, at its heart, it was a political move with clear electoral ends.

In the first place, says Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post, the president needed an issue to shake up the most liberal base of his party, which has been disappointed by his drift to the center over the past four years.

Among them are the LGBT community and young people. These two groups weighed heavily in his 2008 victory and now he needs them again if he wants another four years in the White House.

According to a recent survey by ABC, nearly 70 percent of young people between the ages of 18 to 29 support same-sex marriage and will welcome the president’s position.

At the same time, Obama is in urgent need of funders, who are not coming forward at the expected rate, to finance his campaign. Given that the big donors of Hollywood and Silicon Valley are openly pro-gay, this could also be a message to them.

Likewise, there was another degree of honor and credibility at stake.

Given that his own Vice President Joe Biden had supported same-sex marriage, he did not want to appear ambivalent on the issue.

But he also weighed other factors. On one hand, public opinion has apparently also been evolving, along with Obama.

In 2009, a majority — 57 percent — said that they opposed these types of unions. Now, according to Gallup, 50 percent or more are in favor of them. And it’s not a fortuitous trend, since these numbers have been gaining ground for more than a decade.

Not Very Important

At the same time, it is not an issue that keeps Americans awake.

According to another survey by Washington Post-ABC, only 1 percent of the public categorizes it as something important to their interests, and it was listed last among a list of 20 priorities.

In other words, it has a low political cost.

According to John Green, from the University of Akron, in a certain sense the issue is irrelevant, since the biggest opponents of homosexual marriage are on the extreme right and will vote against Obama, anyway.

“It cuts both ways — it activates both Democratic and Republican base voters,” the analyst said. The first in support and the latter in opposition.

And here is where the risk may lie for Obama.

In various states — such as Virginia and North Carolina, where the president won in the 2008 election, and which will be vital to guaranteeing his re-election this year — there is much opposition to homosexual marriage.

In North Carolina, for example, a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage was just passed, receiving the support of 61 percent of the state’s population.

And in elections as narrow as those expected this year, every vote will be gold.

What Obama did was a gamble. It is not clear, for now, if he will leave a winner.