Last Round of the Wisconsin Battle

Tom Barrett, the Democratic mayor of Milwaukee, and Scott Walker, Wisconsin’s Republican governor, face off in a recall election tomorrow. The results will have an impact not only on Wisconsin, but also on several other American states and even on the presidential race.

In the right corner is Scott Walker: Wisconsin governor, Tea Party Rock Star and union enemy. In the left corner is Tom Barrett: Mayor of Milwaukee, Democratic hopeful and primary target of brothers Bill and Charles Koch, among other billionaires.

They will face off in a recall election tomorrow, the result of which will have an impact not only on Wisconsin, but also on several other American states and even on the presidential race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

If Scott Walker loses, he will become the third governor of an American state to step down after a recall. The most recent was California governor Gray Davis, who lost his position in 2003 to Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Wisconsin’s vote is the end of a long battle that began shortly after Scott Walker was sworn in as governor of this Midwestern state, normally known for its placidity…. Brought into power in 2010 by the conservative and populist wave of the Tea Party, this Ronald Reagan imitator quickly provoked controversy by attacking the benefits and rights of public sector employees in the Badger State.

In the name of fiscal discipline, this very pious pastor’s son first suggested cutting the retirement and health insurance of public officials, then reducing their collective bargaining rights. These proposals were eventually adopted after several weeks of protests that were attended by hundreds of thousands of union members, students, and ordinary citizens in Madison, the state’s capitol.

They also motivated hundreds of activists to collect nearly a million signatures in favor of impeaching Scott Walker, which is three times more than the required number.

According to the latest polls, the Republican governor is ahead of his Democratic rival by about 5 percent. He will have benefited from a considerable financial advantage during his campaign, having raised $30.5 million since the end of 2011, two-thirds of which came from donors living outside of Wisconsin. Among them are well known billionaires, including the Koch brothers and casino tycoon Sheldon Anderson, who share Walker’s obsessive fear of unions and his preference for the most “limited” government possible.

Tom Barrett, whose campaign began in March, will have had to settle for $4 million, one-fourth of which came from outside of Wisconsin. However, he will also have been able to count on the aid of organizations financed by large unions. These, like other groups from the business community, have invested millions in the campaign of their preferred candidate.

In total, candidates and independent groups spent some $63.5 million in the recall, according to the Center for Public Integrity. This is a record for a political campaign in Wisconsin.

Everyone is aware of the stakes of this battle. Scott Walker’s victory would encourage other Republican governors to imitate his approach. It would also be a confirmation of the Tea Party’s power and the anti-government, anti-tax and anti-Obama sentiment that contributed to its birth. And it would be a good sign for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign.

Barack Obama beat John McCain by 14 percent in Wisconsin during the presidential campaign of 2008. According to recent poll averages, he is only ahead of Mitt Romney by 4.7 percent in this state. Neither Obama nor Romney have campaigned for candidates in the recall, no doubt worried about being embarrassed by the defeat of their partisans. Several Democratic and Republican heavyweights have nevertheless returned to Wisconsin to try to influence the voters. Scott Walker has received help from governors Chris Christie of New Jersey, Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Bob McDonnell of Virginia.

“For the next five weeks, the eyes of the nation will be on Wisconsin,” Governor Christie said, saluting Scott Walker’s courage.

For his part, Tom Barrett benefited Friday from the support and presence of former president Bill Clinton.

“Ordinarily, I’m against recall elections…. But sometimes, it is the only way to avoid a disastrous course,” said the 42nd president.