Romney’s Possible VP Choices

Which vice-presidential candidate is favored by Romney supporters? Obama faces no such decision; his running mate is already in place. But who will Romney send into the fray? And could that person decide the election?

Generally speaking, the challenger in a U.S. presidential election has any number of disadvantages. The incumbent can pass laws that attract media attention, be photographed in the company of soldiers as their commander in chief, fly anywhere on Air Force One and use every public appearance as personal propaganda. His opponent can’t do that as easily or as economically. But the challenger does have one advantage to keep the public spotlight on himself: the speculation surrounding his choice of a running mate. The U.S. media have been coming up with lists of Mitt Romney’s potential running mates for months now.

Will he pick Latino Sen. Marco Rubio from the all-important swing state of Florida, in the hope that Rubio will not only win the state for him but attract Latino voters as well? Or will Romney opt for Rob Portman, a senator from the equally important swing state of Ohio, who has campaign experience by way of working in both Bush administrations?

Or perhaps Romney’s advisers hope to attract more female voters if he chooses Susana Martinez, the governor of New Mexico, who also has the advantage of being Hispanic? Who can say at this point? The decision reportedly isn’t imminent. The New York Times reports how the individual potential candidates are busy hopping on and off Romney’s campaign bus, volunteering to help in his campaign.

Portman has accompanied Romney on his bus trip, as has a young representative from Wisconsin, Paul Ryan, who is also head of the House Budget Committee and has already released a controversial budget plan as an alternative to Obama’s.

Some of the candidates have been in dialogue with Romney concerning the number two spot so often — for example, former governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty — that mentioning their names has become almost a natural reflex. The debate is beneficial to the challenger because it brings to light each potential running mate’s advantages and disadvantages; plus, it opens up the possibility of some new, fresh faces.

In contrast, if the incumbent chooses to stick with his current vice president, as is the case with Joe Biden, there’s nothing newsworthy. Same old, same old — and in Biden’s case one might even add same very old.

How helpful the vice president is to overall victory, or even in carrying his own home state, is debatable. Blogger Nate Silver has analyzed the election results beginning in 1920 and has determined that a vice presidential candidate brings only a maximum of 1 to 2 percent of the votes in his own home state — relatively little when compared to the amount of debate generated before the election.

The effect may be greater than average in smaller states such as Delaware (Biden’s home), or in states that don’t normally provide vice presidential candidates (like Alaska, Sarah Palin’s home). Nevertheless, the majority of voters only want to know one thing about a vice presidential candidate: Is the individual capable of taking the reins if something should happen to the president? Romney has already made clear that that is his number one concern in picking a running mate. He apparently learned from the mistake made by his predecessor, John McCain.

McCain surprised his own party as well as the entire nation the day after the Republican convention by choosing the more-or-less unknown Sarah Palin as his running mate. The result cost McCain votes because his supporters weren’t sure she was capable of governing the United States in a worst-case scenario.