Can the US and the Philippines Achieve Their Goals in the South China Sea?

Although the Huangyan Island Incident hasn’t ended, Philippine politicians not only failed to restrain themselves from infuriating China, but also continuously declared Philippine sovereignty on the South China Sea. On the one hand, the Philippine president planned to invite America to deploy spy planes in the South China Sea. On the other, a Philippine senator proposed that America station troops on Huangyan Island and play as the “police,” monitoring military action in the area.

Since 2010, the Philippines has been in the “vanguard” of the sovereignty conflict in the South China Sea. Aside from continuously declaring its proposition on the South China Sea issue and purposely strengthening its military capability, the Philippines actively planned to get the U.S. and other powers involved in the conflict.

Last year, the Philippines asserted that the South China Sea is in line with American interests and suggested that American military forces be deployed in the South China Sea to protect the rights of small countries and help them resolve conflicts. Additionally, the Philippines joined with the U.S. in adding the South China Sea issue to the East Asian Summit. After the Huangyan Island Incident, the Philippines got closer to the U.S. For example, the Philippine president had a high-profile visit in America. Meanwhile, the U.S. and the Philippines have held “2+2” meetings of foreign ministers and defense ministers from both sides. The U.S. and the Philippines also held joint military exercises twice this year.

On the American side, the U.S. has declared clearly its “Asia-Pacific rebalancing” strategy, which aims to normalize China’s rise, reshape the Asian-Pacific order and regain the U.S.’ strategic advantages and dominance in the Asian-Pacific region. The “rebalancing” strategy focuses on promoting the U.S.’ military relations with its alliances and strengthening its military intervention capability. In terms of the South China Sea issue, the U.S. apparently asserts its hope to resolve the conflicts through a diplomatic approach, yet continuously broadens and deepens its “military cooperation” with countries like the Philippines, which declares its sovereignty in the South China Sea.

After the US-Philippines presidential meeting, the White House issued a statement declaring that America will assist the Philippines in improving its military capability and creating a “minimum credible defense posture” by increasing the U.S.-Philippines joint military exercises and training programs. Both sides also said that they will cooperate on strengthening the capability of the Philippines’ maritime security. The U.S. reasserted its commitment in the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty for navigational freedom at sea and regional security. It also committed to giving another vessel to the Philippines.

The aforementioned dangerous signals have seriously influenced the peaceful settlement of the South China Sea disputes and the region’s stability. However, we should also see that the U.S. and the Philippines have a difficult time “hitting it off,” since multiple factors prevent the U.S. from explicitly standing by one side and even intervening in the South China Sea by military means, as the Philippines desires.

First, there are domestic resistances in the Philippines toward the strengthening of the U.S.-Philippines military relations. According to the Visiting Forces Agreement based on the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, American troops can have short-term military exercises in the Philippines. However, due to the high frequency of military exercises, “short-term exercises” has turned into a “long-term military existence” in the Philippines. Regarding the possible legitimacy of the long-term stay of American troops in the future, both average and elite Filipinos believe that it runs against the Philippines’ long-term interests to become a U.S. military ally against China and become involved in the U.S.-China disputes.

Moreover, the U.S. in the short-term has limited capability in the South China Sea disputes. Although American “Asia-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy” is designed to contain China, the U.S. currently has to concentrate on its domestic issues due to its high spending on overseas operations and the upcoming presidential election. The U.S. not only lacks the capability to launch another cold war with China, but also is unwilling to irritate China.

Therefore, a possible situation in the future will be the Philippines continuously testing China’s bottom line, intensely promoting U.S.-Philippines cooperation and even attracting other countries in dispute and powers outside the region to be involved in the South China Sea issue. Each country has its challenges, interests and concerns. These countries will thus stay calm and avoid military conflicts that fundamentally disturb the region’s stability. Whatever the situation, certain dangerous signals deserve to be paid attention to.