Why Does Romney Visit Israel?

Romney declares that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and attacks Iran’s nuclear program. During his visit to Jerusalem, Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential candidate, did everything he could to strengthen his role as a “friend of Israel,” even at the cost of touching hot topics and making promises that he will be unlikely to keep.

For example, Romney said that if he will be elected President, he plans to move the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He is not the first American politician to make similar promises. Back in 1995, the U.S. Congress actually passed an act that required the President to move the embassy. But no one has turned words into action. From Clinton to Bush to Obama, every President has postponed the matter because of security reasons: They all feared that moving the embassy in Israel would give rise to a rebellion in the Arab world. It is hard to believe that Romney could succeed where three of his predecessors (including fellow Republican George W. Bush) have already failed.

These are unfulfilled promises, then. The question is to whom they were addressed. As many people believe, Romney’s visit is intended to gain American Jewish votes. This is probably partly true. It is important to consider three main aspects. First, the Jewish vote is often overestimated by the non-U.S. press-–it is not decisive. Second, American Jews are traditionally Democrats more than Republicans. And third, above all, all Americans, even American Jews, tend to choose a candidate primarily according to his domestic and economic policy. It is not altogether true then that the American Jewish vote depends on Israeli interests.

Let’s analyze some data. First of all, how important is the Jewish vote? It’s small, but not very small. According to CNN, Jews make up 4 percent of the American electorate. In fact, they constitute 2 percent of the population, but they are more represented in the polls for a simple reason: On average, American Jews vote more than Americans. 80 percent go to the polls, compared to 57 percent of eligible Americans.

Second, for whom do American Jews vote? According to a Gallup survey issued last July on American Jewish political orientation, 68 percent of Jews support Barack Obama, while 25 percent support the presumed Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney. The rest are undecided.

Finally, how do they choose their candidate? This is probably the most relevant fact. A national survey conducted in May by a team led by Professor Steven M. Cohen of the Hebrew Union College showed that the most important issues for the majority of Jewish voters in the election were “economic justice including regulating financial institutions, support for progressive taxation, and the argument that government should do more to help the needy.”

The survey concludes that “neither attachment to Israel nor confidence in Israelis vs. Palestinian Authority Arabs as peace seeking strongly factor into Jews’ presidential vote decision.”

In the end, given that the Jewish vote is not so important and that American Jews do not vote on the basis of Israel’s interests, why has Romney spent a lot of resources and energy strengthening his role as a “supporter of Israel”? Indeed, it is likely that Romney is trying to win over the right-wing of his own party instead. This is a way to make right-wing critics realize that he can play a leading role in foreign policy by raising his voice against Iran and Islamic terrorism. Whether and how he will turn words into action if elected is still to be proved.