A Risky Bet

Calling on Paul Ryan as a running mate, Mitt Romney displays an uncustomary audacity. His bet appears risky: Mr. Ryan quite probably has the most conservative ideology of any vice-presidential candidate in the recent history of the United States.

A representative from Wisconsin since 1998, Paul Ryan is a 42-year-old intellectual known for his rather radical positions — fiscal as well as social — that have made him a darling of the tea party.

Chairman of the House Budget Committee, Mr. Ryan poses himself as an ardent defender of the privatization of Medicare, a health insurance program for seniors, but also defends draconian reductions of the debt and of taxes.

The Obama clan will have great fun pointing out that the measures advocated by Mr. Ryan and claimed recently, by Romney will benefit the most fortunate at the expense of both the middle class and the least well-off. Catholic and the father of three children, Mr. Ryan has never hidden his pro-life positions, which will also be a field day for the Democrats.

The process that led to the choice of Paul Ryan was long and rigorous, as fits with Mitt Romney’s methodical style. There was no trace of the haste seen in John McCain’s controversial choice of Sarah Palin four years ago. At the same time, Mr. Romney gives a similar impression of being in a very precarious situation after having left the beaten path.

Clearly, Mr. Romney, a moderate among the Republicans, felt the need to reinforce his support from conservatives at the national level. On the other hand, by turning off towards the right, he is susceptible of frightening the independent voters whose support is essential to ousting President Obama from the White House.

It is even more surprising that two heavyweights from key states were passed over: Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. It is doubtful that Mr. Ryan will enable the Republican ticket to take Wisconsin, which Barack Obama won by a comfortable margin of 14 points in 2008.

With two weeks until the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Mr. Romney is hoping that the announcement of his running mate will revive a lackluster campaign and turn attention away from his failures in Great Britain and in Israel, his refusal to disclose his tax returns from the last ten years and the repeated attacks on his style of management at Bain Capital.

Nevertheless, we shouldn’t overestimate the impact of a running mate on the result of the Nov. 6 election. Americans vote first and foremost for a president, not for a team.

Polls show that Mr. Romney trails Obama by five points on a national scale. This is a slim margin by percentage, but — in the context of a presidential campaign — it is nonetheless quite significant. In betting on Paul Ryan, he’s taking a shot at turning the tide.