Strengthening Economic National Security Through Trans-Pacific Partnership

Published in Nihon Keizai Shinbun
(Japan) on 23 August 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ryo Christopher Kato. Edited by Mary Young.
Japanese Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko indicated last November that he would like Japan to take part in negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership, yet he has not officially announced his country’s participation. Instead, he has repeatedly postponed making a final decision, as he is too preoccupied with domestic politics.

But the deadline for Japan’s involvement looms as he indecisively runs in circles. The Obama administration, leader of the negotiations, may not be able to cope with the addition of Japan while it deals with the upcoming presidential campaign.

As such, the Prime Minister must announce participation in the negotiations as soon as possible. Japan’s national security situation is shaky as territorial disputes with China and Korea intensify over the Senkakus and Takeshima.. The Japan-U.S. alliance must also be strengthened economically through the framework of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Starting next week the presidential race in the U.S. will quickly intensify, with the Republicans opening their national convention on Aug. 27 and the Democrats opening theirs on Sept. 3. After this period the Obama administration’s negotiating position in relation to Congress and the business community will only decrease.

The politically powerful U.S. automotive industry is opposed to Japan’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the election is forecast to be a tight race. Thus we don’t expect President Obama’s Democratic Party to have the strength to pacify the automotive industry’s opposition.

If Japan waits until after the November elections to announce its official intention to take part in the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, actual participation in the negotiations may have to wait until after the spring of next year at the earliest. This is because it will take the new administration and Congress at least three months to settle on a policy, and on top of that they will need to consult with the government of Japan.

During this time countries already participating, including recently joined Canada and Mexico, will proceed with negotiations, mapping out the trade framework of the Asia-Pacific region — without Japan.

The Obama administration, although mindful of the automotive industry, is strongly in favor of Japan’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership because the U.S. is concerned about Beijing’s political influence on its trade and investment partners.

With globalization and increased mutual interdependence, a country cannot strengthen its national security by military means alone. Beijing pursues a self-serving trade strategy; thus a regional market must be established that subjects China to standard international rules and protects fair trade.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is the best way to do so. Prime Minister Noda and the Democratic Party of Japan must make a definitive decision soon, keeping in mind both a global and domestic perspective.




TPP参加で経済の安全保障を高めよ
野田佳彦首相は昨年11月に環太平洋経済連携協定(TPP)交渉に加わる意欲を示しながら、いまだに参加表明をしていない。国内の政治情勢に目を奪われて、決断を何度も先送りしたためだ。
その優柔不断な姿勢のツケがまわり、時間切れが迫っている。交渉を主導する米オバマ政権が国内で大統領選挙の対策に追われ、日本の参加問題に十分に対処できなくなる恐れがあるからだ。TPPの入り口が狭くなり始めている。
 首相は一日も早く交渉参加を宣言すべきだ。尖閣諸島や竹島の領有権をめぐる中国や韓国との対立が深まり、日本の安全保障は揺らいでいる。TPPの枠組みを通して、経済の面からも日米の同盟関係を強化すべき局面だ。
 米国は来週から大統領選の熱気が一気に高まるだろう。8月27日に共和党が、9月3日には民主党が全国大会を開く。この時期を過ぎると、米議会や産業界に対する米政権の交渉力は低下する。
 米国内では、政治力が強い自動車業界が日本のTPP参加に反対の立場だ。大統領選は接戦が予想される。オバマ大統領の民主党陣営に、自動車業界の反対論を封じる腕力を期待すべきではない。
 日本の意思決定が11月の米大統領選後にずれ込めば、実際の交渉参加は早くても来春以降となってしまう。年明けに米国の新政権が発足した後に、日米の政府間協議や、米新政権と米議会の意見調整などに最低でも3カ月の準備期間が要るとみられるからだ。
 その間にも、現在の参加国によるTPP交渉は進展する。新規で年内に交渉に参加するカナダ、メキシコを含めて、日本不在のままアジア太平洋地域の新しい通商秩序の骨格ができてしまう。
 オバマ政権は米国内の自動車業界の意向を気にしながらも、本音では日本のTPP参加を強く期待している。経済大国となった中国が、投資や貿易の相手国に対して政治的にも強大な影響力をふるう状況を懸念しているからだ。
 国々の相互依存が進んだグローバル経済の下では、一国の安全保障を軍事力だけで盤石にすることはできない。自国優先の通商戦略を採る中国と公正に競争できる市場を築き、中国を共通ルールの世界に引き出さなければならない。
 そのための最有力の手段がTPPだ。野田首相と民主党は、国内の政局だけでなく、今こそ世界の大局を見て判断すべきである。
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