Will Obama Win?

Today, Obama should win, but there is no guarantee. The only thing certain is that the economy should be, similar to four years ago, the decisive factor. With an Obama stripped of his almost-miraculous halo, the economy is now what should favor his eventual performance in a second term.

With the selection of Congressman Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s running mate, the U.S. presidential campaign has entered into right-wing territory, with only the main party conventions left before the decisive day.

The question is whether Obama will prevail, a feat burdened by the legacy of presidents who were not capable of being reelected and are considered a symbol of failure in the U.S. This happened to the elder Bush and to Carter, who were more influential outside the U.S. than inside.

According to the polls – which are more accurate than in other countries, including ours – if people went to the ballot boxes today, Obama would win. However, there is a long way to go before November, and [predictors should remember] the case of John Kerry, who in the middle of Aug. 2004 was ahead of George W. Bush, only to lose in the end.

Everything indicates that the election will be decided by the same factor that influenced the arrival of Obama to the White House: that is to say, the economic situation, which could only be altered by an event as dramatic as Iran. However, international issues have figured little in this campaign, with the attention of the candidates and the voters centered on the economy.

It is unquestionable that Obama inherited this crisis and did not cause it. But once in power, the responsibility of overcoming it has passed to him. In this sense, the U.S. is in a better situation than Europe, with the worst behind them and a stable economy. However, the people are unsatisfied, since the growth is insufficient and unemployment is too high.

As for Obama, his presidency has been difficult, so much so that he has not been able to keep almost any of his campaign promises, including the closing of Guantanamo. His only major legislative and judicial success has been his healthcare reform, which will probably be repealed if the Republicans win. The major problem for Obama has been the “Obamania,” that is, the enormous expectations that his election generated in his country and in the world. We forget that his margin of action is limited by the existence of internal institutions, in which power is distributed and shared with a powerful Congress and with local governments, giving the country its federal character. At the international level, one could add that the U.S. was and still is an empire, with engagements and interests that cannot easily be changed by one person. In the end, the reaction to his triumph has been the control of Congress by the Republicans and a fraction of right-wing extremists known as the “Tea Party.”

The economic theme was behind the election of Paul Ryan as vice president, since it is his specialty. Normally with the selection of the vice president, a main factor is that the running mate contributes the missing votes necessary to win. In this case, it should have been the selection of someone more moderate, but the choice was the exact opposite: reinforcing the conservative base with a militancy capable of motivating them to go to the polls.

Behind all of this is the uniqueness of the U.S. system, where instead of having “one” electoral system, every state has its own. They also do not vote directly for the candidate. (Generally, there are more than two, who are rarely covered by the media given their small chances of success.) Instead, delegates vote at the electoral college in November, a system that originated in the nineteenth century due to the vastness of the country.

At the source of this election as with others, the attention will be centered on five or six states whose results change quickly. Already, Ryan could contribute his own state of Wisconsin, which traditionally votes for Democrats. This small group of states is what the interests of the analysts and candidates will be focused, as the U.S. electoral system normally concedes all of the votes of a state to whomever wins in that state.

Given these characteristics, the system does not give weight to the minorities scattered in the states. (This happens with the black vote.) In turn, it concedes a higher figure to small but concentrated minorities who flock to vote, as occurs with the Cubans in Florida and the Jews in New York.

Voting will be long, and since it is not a holiday and about half of eligible voters do not vote, motivation to go to the ballot boxes (and volunteers driving senior citizen voters) is of high importance.

Today, Obama should win, but there is no guarantee. The only thing certain is that the economy should be, similar to four years ago, the decisive factor. With an Obama stripped of his almost-miraculous halo, the economy is now what should favor his eventual performance in a second term.

But first he has to get it, and that does not seem so easy.