The President's Job

The labor market has stalled in the United States. Economic growth is insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate, which has failed to fall below 8 percent.

The employment rate’s inertia is not without consequence for Barack Obama’s chances of winning a second term as president in November. The prevailing gloom surrounding the economy appears to be the main obstacle to his re-election, and it is in turn the buoy to which his Republican rival Mitt Romney clings as he attempts to dislodge Obama from the White House.

According to recent national polls, Obama is enjoying an advantage of approximately five points in key states, resulting from a favorable post-Democratic convention rebound. But this lead could evaporate if bad economic news should beat down on the already fragile economy in the weeks preceding the election.

Although the United States has recovered a little more than half of the eight million jobs lost during the Great Recession, the economy is running on empty. When looking for a scapegoat, nothing is easier than blaming the president, and his opponents are not hesitating. It is ironic, though, to hear Mr. Romney criticize Mr. Obama for what the House of Representatives, with a Republican majority, denied him last year: a program to encourage the creation of 1.3 million jobs.

When you think about it, could Mitt Romney do a better job than Obama of reinvigorating a faltering economy without jeopardizing the finances of the state? Though he goes from one rally to another trumpeting the claim that he would create 12 million jobs over the next four years, the former governor is silent on the means that he intends to use to fulfill his promise. To be more credible he would be better off, as the Republican strategists are urging, being more specific in the presidential debates in October.

While Congress stands idly by. the Federal Reserve must fend for itself and adopt stimulus measures. Thursday the Fed released its heavy artillery to shake the labor market out of its torpor. The problem is that companies are afraid to hire in the face of an uncertain outlook, and consumers, once grasshoppers, have been transformed into ants. Worse, Fed big boss Ben Bernanke is concerned that his efforts are outweighed by the explosive cocktail of spending cuts and tax increases that was concocted in the Capitol for the start of 2013.

Without the bumpy behavior of the economy, it is highly likely that the dull candidacy of Mitt Romney would have any weight against the caliber and charisma of the outgoing president. But if the clouds should continue to accumulate in the economic sky, there is a very real possibility that depressed voters, as a last resort, will cause Barack Obama to lose his own job.