A US Failure in Egypt and Syria

The prevailing impression that we as Arabs — as well as most of our peers in the Third World — are under, is that Western intelligence, and American intelligence in particular, know every nook and cranny in our countries and that it is all on a string. But the reality is quite the opposite. There are numerous examples that I will cite later to confirm this conclusion.

I am not arguing at all that Western countries and their security apparatuses don’t own quite sophisticated espionage technology tools in terms of collecting information, as well as research centers comprised of highly qualified academic brains; in fact, even some governors and ministers are affiliated with these apparatuses. However, what I strongly argue is that all these intelligence tools have had a disastrous time understanding the ground developments that are taking place in our region. This is because officials — spending all those billions on these research and investigation apparatuses — forget one single and essential point. It lies in the fact that the psychological nature and religious and national tendencies of an Arab individual are too complicated for Western laboratories to understand and analyze.

To collect information is one thing; to analyze and draw the right conclusions is something completely different. The most prominent example, in this context, is the succession of surprising events that are occurring in Egypt, one after the other.

Tens of non-governmental organizations funded by outsiders have offices in Egypt. They issue weekly and monthly studies and reports on the latest developments in Egypt through their research centers, or the so-called Think Tank, backed by the U.S. Embassy, which is the largest in the region. However, they absolutely never expected a revolution to start that would oust President Hosni Mubarak and his regime.

The U.S. Administration has invested about $36 billion over the past thirty years to arm the Egyptian army. It also invested a lot of effort and communication to strengthen ties with elements of the Egyptian military institution. [In other words, the U.S. invested a lot] for a man named Dr. Mohamed Morsi to emerge from nowhere and turn the tables on everyone, removing all the big players and leaders in this institution in just a few minutes — including their grand master, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, and the veracious friend of the United States Gen. Sami Annan, Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Armed Forces.

The impression that prevailed in United States’ circles was that Field Marshal Tantawi was the true leader of Egypt, and that Dr. Morsi was merely a junior clerk or, rather, a civilian decorative front who could not or dared not surpass the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Yet, the reality has been completely different. The opposite has proven to be plainly true: No force reigns more supreme than that of the people and no authority prevails over that of the ballot box.

The Camp David Accords used to be tantamount to a sacred U.S. cow. No one dared approach them, or talk about amending them, despite the security supplements they comprised, that were offensive to Egypt, reducing its sovereignty and humiliating its people. Here, these agreements falter, and their annexes get eroded one after the other, with Egyptian tanks and aircraft getting back to Sinai without consulting with our Israeli “partner.”

National will is stronger than all the agreements, especially those that have been imposed on weak submissive spineless leaders. This will is the most capable of breaking the bonds of oppression and slavery, one after the other. The proof is that this arrogant Israeli leadership that is begging Egyptian authorities to withdraw their tanks and planes from the Sinai and cannot find any respondents.

This Western intelligence itself predicted the fall of the Syrian regime within days. Yet here it survives for more than 18 months and the conflict turns into a fierce military conflict whose victims are tens of thousands of innocent people, both those who get martyred through bombing and vehicle bombs or the hundreds of thousands of refugees escaping to squalid refugee camps in neighboring countries. Did this intelligence expect the flow of hundreds, or perhaps even thousands, of supporters of extremist Islamic groups to Syria to fight the bloody regime with weapons bought with America’s allies’ funds — weapons that enable them to change the power equation on the ground, not only in Syria, but probably in the Middle East region as a whole?

The U.S. Administration yesterday issued a stern warning to citizens not to visit the new Libya for fear of their being killed or kidnapped or both, and that’s due to insecurity and rampant crime and the growing influence of armed militias. Did research centers expect to reach this result when they recommended a military NATO force intervention? Or did they actually want to spread anarchy in this country, and perhaps the entire region?

The U.S. Administration, and with it all the Western countries, imposes a fierce economic and political blockade on Iran. It is supposed to isolate that country internationally and force it to kneel passively under Uncle Sam’s feet, asking for clemency and forgiveness. Today, the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement begins in the Iranian capital Teheran. Delegates from one hundred countries attend it, including thirty presidents, eight of them Arabs, and at least two of the Gulf states, if not more.

President Morsi was said to be forced to bow down before the American president because he was obliged to feed ninety million hungry mouths in Egypt. Yet, here he is heading to China first, not to Washington, and will pass to Teheran on his way back and not through Tel Aviv, the key to U.S. financial aid.

The Arab region rebels against all forms of U.S. hegemony because peoples started to regain their will, one after the other. This move eludes the understanding of all research centers, their computers and so-called experts.

America will not be a friend of the Arab peoples no matter how it coaxes them and tries to shed its skin, claiming that it is a messenger of democracy and human rights. It does not want real democracy for these peoples; rather, it wants them to provide their cheap resources to the West, and to give obedience and loyalty to Israel, which is absolutely unacceptable.

The Arab region is changing — but America and the West are not. Thus, in the end, our region will win and the U.S. and Western Alliance will lose.