Obama and the Hispanics

Obama seeks the Hispanic vote, which was crucial to his victory in 2008 and is so again with November 6 in sight. Back then, he picked up 67 percent. He is not necessarily going to get that this time, as he has let down this sector — which will make up one third of the United States population by 2050 — by not achieving approval for a new immigration law to legalize the over 12 million undocumented in the country, due to the lack of a sufficient majority in Congress. Nor should it be thought that Hispanics, or Latinos, with voting rights are necessarily stirred by immigration issues that don’t concern them very much anymore. However, what does affect them is what to do with children that were not born in the U.S. and who, as adults, would have been deprived of the right to study or work in the country, if Obama had not made a temporary decision in this regard this summer. This seems to have brought in many votes.

The United States is changing greatly in the hands of this thriving minority. Thus, for the first time ever in a presidential campaign, both candidates participated in two debates on the leading Spanish-language television network. Obama had an advantage because, more than feeling impassioned toward him, what a majority of Hispanics feel is terror toward Mitt Romney, and even more so toward his partner on the Republican ticket, Paul Ryan. This is due to his attitude toward immigration, and also to his belligerence regarding any spending on social protection, especially for his position on health care for (nearly) everyone. The result is that Obama can compete with Romney in some key states such as Nevada, Colorado and even Florida.

In George W. Bush’s victories in 2000 and 2004, religion was a key factor, because his campaign was able to mobilize and capture the evangelical vote. Now, this church seems to have a much smaller role, not because there isn´t a Protestant on the Republican ticket for the first time but, rather, because with regard to black and Hispanic support for Obama, the surveys show that perhaps race is the most important determining factor. Gender is as well, because women, especially Latinas, side more with Obama. Behind the conflict on the basis of skin color hides that of social class. Romney only has massive support among lower-class white men, the same ones who have seen their life expectancy decrease by three years since 1990, while that of Hispanics has risen by more than six.