Iraq and Obama, the Second Time

Those who think that Obama, in his second term, will be the same Obama that he was in his first term are dreamers. They do not adequately read the indications of change in his speeches, actions and hints. Likewise, they ignore the fact that presidents of the United States usually leave their controversial plans and sensitive battles for the second term.

As long as we are on the topic of Iraq, it is known that the American president has put aside the option of “intervention” in the context of political crises. He has also distanced himself from leaning to one side or the other on the issue. He has communicated this position throughout the calls for a vote of no confidence for the Prime Minister, where distancing himself from the circle of Iraqi political conflict is well understood. This is a mistake, as Obama is opposed to the Erbil meetings and attempts to cast a vote of no confidence.

The Obama administration has not interacted with Baghdad on sensitive issues, such as their involvement in Syrian events, confronting Russia on their arms trade, or the investment issues in oil production. Instead, it leaves the matter to American press statements and the discussion table after the elections. The excuse is that the electoral battle does not leave room for an escalation in regional and international files. It also explains Obama’s attempts to prevent the use of a military option against Iran, despite the Israeli and Gulf pressure to halt Iran’s unchecked power.

The American president, often brief of speech, will enact changes to his Iraq policy after the electoral concerns and challenges are lifted. As for how these changes will materialize, they will be focused on the sphere that bears a relationship to the power struggle and the 2014 election year. Reports have leaked from the Pentagon and some of the advisory meetings in the White House that support intervention on the part of the president in that sphere to prevent the ascension of a force that is hostile to the decision-making authority of the United States and the autonomy of his administration. The military view anticipated Iraq sliding into a regional conflict unaffected by a series of stabilizing initiatives, while indicators suggest that Obama has postponed the most serious of these initiatives for his second term. It is important that he expresses his concern for these warnings, according to published reports.

It appears that the satisfaction of the Iraqi political class with Obama’s return to the White House stems from wishes that he will continue the policy of his first term with respect to Iraq and its affairs. Yet wishes in politics are like a balloon that goes out of a window and into the sky — it could return to you, but it may not.

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“We appreciate frankness from those who like us. Frankness from others is called insolence.”

Andre Maurois