ASEAN: US-China Tug-of-War Intensifies

Published in Nishinippon Shimbun
(Japan) on 11 November 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ryo Christopher Kato. Edited by Victoria Denholm.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations held a summit meeting between the 18th and 20th of November in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The heads of Japan, the U.S., and China attended. With the meeting as a background, China, which is trying to exert influence over the region, and the U.S., which touts the Asian Pivot, engaged in theatrical saber rattling.

Recently re-elected President Obama was a must-see. Leaving the meeting early, he made his first ever visit to Burma, where he met President Thein Sein and Party Leader of the largest opposition, Aung San Suu Kyi. Mr. Obama commended Burma’s steps toward democracy, saying, “our goal is to sustain the momentum for democratization.”

In the period of military rule, Burma was close to China. The U.S. is using democratization as a chance to bring Burma closer and to drive a wedge between it and China.

China is not giving up without a fight. Premier Wen Jiabao spoke with Cambodia’s Hun Sen to seek understanding of Beijing’s standpoint regarding the territorial disputes with China, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Cambodia, which receives a great amount of economic assistance from China, is the only pro-China country in ASEAN. Premier Wen commented, “external forces should not use any excuse to interfere,” warning the United States not to meddle in the South China Sea disputes.

The undercurrent of this dispute is between China, which is expanding its navy and extending its influence out to the South China Sea and Western Pacific, and the United States, which is trying to maintain the current order in the Pacific.

The spat between Japan and China, with its own territorial disputes over the Senkakus, is also a part of the U.S.-China disputes. To China, the Senkakus are not valuable for its fisheries or underground resources, but more so as a naval route from its shores to the Pacific.

The question of how to deal with a rapidly emerging China is a common challenge for Japan and ASEAN. As China asserts itself on the Senkakus and the South Pacific, neighboring countries become increasingly wary.

The second Obama administration’s Asia pivot is a welcome policy that will help stabilize the region.

On the 20th, President Obama urged the related states to create a legally binding “Code of Conduct.” This is a valid proposal to halt territorial disputes before they turn violent.

Japan, too, must support ASEAN’s creation of rules on maritime security involving China and neighboring countries. Such rules can also be applied to the East China Sea.

As the U.S.-China tug-of-war intensifies, ASEAN is beginning to split between pro-Beijing and pro-Washington factions. ASEAN is important as the parent organization for multilateral conferences. As a country trusted by ASEAN, Japan must help support ASEAN’s central role in the region.


ASEAN 激しさ増す米中の綱引き

東南アジア諸国連合(ASEAN)に関連する一連の首脳会議が18~20日、カンボジアのプノンペンで開かれ、日本、米国、中国などの首脳も参加した。会議を舞台に、この地域への影響力を強めようとする中国と、「アジア最優先」を掲げる米国が激しいさや当てを演じた。

注目すべき動きを見せたのは、再選を決めたばかりのオバマ米大統領だ。会議に先立ってミャンマーを初訪問し、テイン・セイン大統領や最大野党の党首アウン・サン・スー・チー氏と会談した。オバマ氏は同国で進む民主化への動きを評価し、「民主化達成のために、やれることを何でもやる」と表明した。

 軍事政権時代のミャンマーは中国との関係が深かった。米国は民主化を機に、ミャンマーの中国離れを誘い、米国側に引き寄せようとしている。

 中国も負けてはいない。温家宝首相はASEAN議長国であるカンボジアのフン・セン首相と会談し、中国とベトナム、フィリピンなどが一部の島の領有権を争う南シナ海問題に関しては、中国の立場に配慮するよう求めた。

 中国から巨額の経済支援を受けるカンボジアは、今やASEANきっての親中派だ。温首相は「外部から邪魔されないような状況下で問題を処理すべきだ」と主張し、南シナ海問題に関与しようとする米国を強くけん制した。

 この対立の底流にあるのは、海軍力の増強を背景に、自国沿岸から南シナ海や西太平洋にまで影響力を拡大したい中国と、太平洋での現在の秩序維持を目指す米国とのせめぎ合いである。

 沖縄県・尖閣諸島の領有権をめぐる日本と中国の争いも、同じ米中の対立構図の中に位置付けられる。中国にとって尖閣周辺海域は、漁場や地下資源を有するだけでなく、艦艇が沿岸部から太平洋へ進出する出口として重要だからだ。
 急速に台頭する中国とどう向き合うかは、日本とASEAN諸国の共通の課題である。尖閣諸島や南シナ海問題で、自己中心的で強引な対応を見せる中国に、周辺諸国は警戒感を強めている。
 こうしたなか、2期目に入ったオバマ政権が、アジア最優先の外交戦略を継続し、アジアへの働き掛けを強めたことは、地域の安定を図る上で歓迎できる。
オバマ大統領は20日の東アジアサミットで、南シナ海問題について法的拘束力のある「行動規範」策定を進めるよう関係国に促した。領有権争いが紛争に発展するのを防ぐための有効な提案だ。
 日本も、ASEANが中国と多国間の枠組みで海洋安全保障のルールを策定するよう、側面支援すべきだ。そのルールは東シナ海にも活用できるからだ。
 米中の綱引きが強まり、ASEAN内部にも親米派と親中派との亀裂が生じている。ASEANは多国間協議の母体として重要だ。ASEAN諸国から一定の信頼を得ている日本も、その求心力が高まるよう働き掛けたい。
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