“North Korea-US Deal” Theory Is Not Trustworthy

Huanqiu published an article indicating that North Korea-U.S. relations may suddenly warm up the other day, which attracted a lot of attention. The author’s theories were based on a “North Korea-U.S. Deal” theory. The central idea is that North Korea and the U.S. are likely to solve the North Korea nuclear problem privately. In this deal, North Korea becomes the U.S.’ “important target of the united front.” The U.S. admits that North Korea is a “nuclear weapon state” under the condition that North Korea promises to join its front to contain China. On Feb. 26, the American basketball team arrived at Pyongyang as representatives, which seemed to provide the latest evidence for this argument. However, the author thinks that North Korea and the U.S. “maintain contact” with each other at most. Alleviation of tensions is superficial; both countries’ current contradictions do not improve. As for a “deal,” this is not the kind that a basketball team could make.

First of all, it is impossible for the U.S. to disunite China and North Korea by taking advantage of the deal of “denuclearization.” The core idea of the U.S. Asia-Pacific Strategy is to strengthen and intensify U.S. hegemony status. Containing China is the most important of all tasks, but it is absolutely not the only task. For example, intensifying alliances and nonproliferation are the two major matters the U.S. should not look down upon, since leaving either one of them out will endanger the enforcement of its “pivot to Asia” strategy. However, the price the U.S. must pay to close the “North Korea-U.S. Deal” is to admit North Korea’s status of “nuclear weapon state,” which means that the U.S. must give up denuclearization of the peninsula. The results of this are too much for the Americans to take. The first is the legalization of North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons, which once again creates a big weakness for the International Nonproliferation System and sets a bad example: If North Korea can achieve permission to have nuclear weapons through endless and reckless fighting as well as by political deals, why couldn’t other countries do the same? In doing so, will the U.S. have a sense of security? Where is its international authority? The second involves Korea’s foundations of national security and north and south reunification as well as its consideration of long-term benefits. Previously the U.S. had announced again and again that “it will definitely not tolerate North Korea having nuclear weapons.” If, at this point, the U.S. disregards this proclamation to ruin a deal with South Korea’s old enemy and sacrifices denuclearization of the peninsula, it will only push South Korea to completely abandon the U.S.-South Korea Alliance and take the path of nuclear weapons. The U.S. is clever and well-experienced. Could it do this — a lose-lose deal?

From the viewpoint of North Korea, although it has “burning expectations” from its relations with the U.S., it will not go so far as to be reckless and end up surrendering to the enemy country. Even if it really has to do this deal, it should find out whether it has really won the trust of the U.S., who always treats North Korea as a “rogue” and “rascal.” Also, North Korea should make clear its authority and verify whether the U.S. is willing to take the risk of fighting against China for an unreliable promise. China is one of North Korea’s few friends in today’s world. It has been an important source of strength to help North Korea get through economic crises and political isolation over the past few decades as well. As a result, it is impossible for North Korea not to take China’s reaction into consideration. The conclusion is: A “North Korea-U.S. Deal” cannot become North Korea’s political option.

Of course, we cannot exclude the possibility of the U.S. trying to think of a plan for North Korea, or deny the illusions North Koreans have about the U.S. Nevertheless, we should see that while a “North Korea-U.S.” deal could potentially exist as a strategy, it is difficult for this deal to become a reality. “North Korea-United States Deal” Theory blackens North Korea’s name as an ungrateful villain uniting with the U.S. to contain China. When it comes to disunity in China-North Korea relations, this is definitely the best example. As North Korea conducted a third nuclear weapons test, and “Hopelessness” and “Failure” theories have quietly emerged with regard to the denuclearization of the peninsula, the “North Korea-U.S. Deal” Theory would only further muddy the waters, obscuring the goal of denuclearization of the peninsula and staggering international society’s resolution and solidification. We should therefore be soberly aware of and firmly opposed to this subject.

The author is a research committee member at the institute of the North Korean Peninsula — Chinese Academy of Asia-Pacific Studies.