The Ball Is in Kerry's Court

Published in al-Ghad
(Jordan) on 29 March 2013
by Muhammad Hussein al-Mowmany (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chris Marrs. Edited by Jane Lee.
It’s more than likely that President Obama totally forgot the Middle East as soon as he left its airspace. However, Secretary of State John Kerry will remain in the region to build on what little has been started. Despite his warnings against unrealistic expectations, his actions seem to suggest that he understands the necessity of the role of the U.S. in the Middle East and that a U.S. withdrawal would surrender the region to extremist forces.

Kerry must be convinced that leaving the region on its own would upset the balance of power and must understand the old adage "you break it, you bought it." This phrase could be applied to the U.S. regarding a number of issues in the region, not the least of which is surrendering Iraq to Iran on a silver platter.

This does not negate the fact that a planned, gradual U.S. withdrawal from the region and its affairs could be constructive and make Middle Eastern nations responsible for themselves. However, such a withdrawal does not need to include surrendering the region to those powers waiting to take it over, as happened in Iraq.

Kerry should view the region on two basic levels. First he needs to consider the region as a whole. He also needs to understand the individual issues that play a role in the region. The American administration erred in that it only considered individual regional issues and not their potential effects on the region as a whole. The Iraqi issue was "Iraqi." What happened in Syria concerned only Syria — despite the opposite having been proven by force. This American misconception stems from Israel always trying to frame the Palestinian issue as a purely "Palestinian" issue, far removed from the region and any possible regional repercussions. This is a mistake in regard to the Palestinian issue and others.

Iraq is right in Iran's backyard, and Iran has begun meddling in its affairs. The Palestinian issue is truly regional as it created an air of uncertainty and instability upon which extremists thrive. The role of the U.S. in the region could be beneficial, constructive and a catalyst to balance the regional political system through stability and cooperation for the benefit of the people.

The regional political powers cannot match the Iranian presence that has only been strengthened by U.S. policies in the region. These countries cannot contain Russia's destabilizing role in Syria. It is time the U.S. realized this, not simply for moral or historical reasons given its position as the strongest power in the Middle East but also for reasons that are strictly in U.S. regional interests.

America's allies in the region have lost a lot of their ability to influence America's political role in the region due to their diminished political legitimacy and their weak internal situations. They can only rely on logic and appealing to American interests to encourage the U.S. to play such a role. Such an appeal should come from non-state actors, as the governments and their representatives have lost much of their credibility.


اﻷرﺟﺢ أن اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺲ اﻷﻣﯿﺮﻛﻲ ﺑﺎراك أوﺑﺎﻣﺎ، ﻧﺴﻲ اﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ ﺑﻤﺠﺮد ﻣﻐﺎدرﺗﻪ أﺟﻮاءه اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ. ﻟﻜﻦ وزﻳﺮ
ﺧﺎرﺟﯿﺘﻪ ﺟﻮن ﻛﯿﺮي، ﺑﻘﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ واﻟﺒﻨﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻘﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﺬي ﺗﻢ اﻟﺒﺪء ﻓﯿﻪ. ورﻏﻢ ﺣﺬره ﻣﻦ ﺧﻠﻖ
أي ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎت ﻏﯿﺮ واﻗﻌﯿﺔ، ﻧﺠﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﺮﻛﺎﺗﻪ ﺑﻌﻀﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﮫﻢ ﺑﺄن دور اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﻲ ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ اﻻﺳﺘﻐﻨﺎء
ﻋﻨﻪ، وأن ﻓﻲ اﺿﻤﺤﻼﻟﻪ ﺗﺴﻠﯿﻤﺎ ﻟﻺﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻟﻠﻘﻮى اﻟﻤﺘﺸﺪدة.
ﻳﺠﺐ أن ﻳﻘﺘﻨﻊ ﻛﯿﺮي، أن ﺗﺮك اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻧﻪ ﻗﻠﺐ ﻣﻮازﻳﻨﻪ رأﺳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻘﺐ؛ وﻣﻦ ﻳﻌﺒﺚ ﺑﺸﻲء وﻳﻌﻄﺒﻪ، ﻳﺠﺐ
أن ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺛﻤﻨﻪ، وﻓﻖ ﻣﻘﻮﻟﺔ: "If you break it, you own it". وھﺬا ﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺎل اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪد
ﻣﻦ ﻣﻠﻔﺎت اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻢ، وﻟﯿﺲ أﻗﻠﮫﺎ وﺿﻮﺣﺎ ﺗﺴﻠﯿﻢ اﻟﻌﺮاق ﻹﻳﺮان ﻋﻠﻰ طﺒﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻓﻀﺔ.
ھﺬا ﻻ ﻳﻨﻔﻲ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺔ أن اﻧﺴﺤﺎﺑﺎ أﻣﯿﺮﻛﯿﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﯿﺎ وﻣﺪروﺳﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻢ وﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎه ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮن ﺑﻨﺎًء، وﻳﻀﻊ اﻟﺪول اﻟﺸﺮق
أوﺳﻄﯿﺔ أﻣﺎم ﻣﺴﺆوﻟﯿﺎﺗﮫﺎ. ﻟﻜﻦ ھﻜﺬا اﻧﺴﺤﺎب ﻻ ﻳﺠﺐ أن ﻳﻀﻤﻦ ﺗﺴﻠﯿﻢ اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻟﻠﻘﻮى اﻟﺠﺎھﺰة ﻟﻠﺴﯿﻄﺮة ﻋﻠﯿﻪ،
ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﺪث ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻌﺮاق.
ﻳﺠﺪر ﺑﺎﻟﻮزﻳﺮ ﻛﯿﺮي رؤﻳﺔ اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺿﻤﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﯿﻦ أﺳﺎﺳﯿﯿﻦ: ذﻟﻚ اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﻲ اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﺗﺘﺮاﺑﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻪ
اﻟﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ؛ واﻵﺧﺮ اﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﻟﻤﻠﻔﺎت ﺑﺒﻌﺪھﺎ اﻟﻔﺮدي، ﻣﻊ ﺿﺮورة اﻟﻤﻮاءﻣﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮﻳﯿﻦ.
ﻓﺨﻄﺄ اﻹدارة اﻷﻣﯿﺮﻛﯿﺔ أﻧﮫﺎ ﻧﻈﺮت ﻟﻠﻤﻠﻔﺎت اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ ﺑﻔﺮدﻳﺔ، ﺑﻌﯿﺪا ﻋﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮاﺗﮫﺎ اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ. ﻓﺎﻟﻘﻀﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﺮاﻗﯿﺔ
"ﻋﺮاﻗﯿﺔ" وطﻨﯿﺔ، وﻣﺎ ﻳﺤﺪث ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮرﻳﺔ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺴﻮرﻳﺔ، إﻻ إذا ﺛﺒﺖ ﻋﻜﺲ ذﻟﻚ وﺑﻘﻮة. وﻣﺮد ھﺬه اﻟﻘﻨﺎﻋﺔ
اﻷﻣﯿﺮﻛﯿﺔ أن إﺳﺮاﺋﯿﻞ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ دوﻣﺎ إﻟﻰ ﺗﺄطﯿﺮ اﻟﻘﻀﯿﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﯿﻨﯿﺔ ﺑﻌﯿﺪا ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﺪھﺎ اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﻲ، وﺟﻌﻠﮫﺎ ﻗﻀﯿﺔ
"ﻓﻠﺴﻄﯿﻨﯿﺔ" ﻓﻘﻂ، ﺑﺪون أي ﺗﺪاﻋﯿﺎت إﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ. وھﺬا ﺧﻄﺄ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻘﻀﯿﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﯿﻨﯿﺔ وﻏﯿﺮھﺎ.
ﻓﺎﻟﻌﺮاق ﺳﺎﺣﺔ أﻣﺎﻣﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻮذ اﻹﻳﺮاﻧﻲ، وﺑﺎت ﻳﺄﺗﻤﺮ ﺑﻤﺼﺎﻟﺤﮫﺎ. وﺳﻮرﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﺮﻛﺔ اﻟﻤﻤﺎﻧﻌﺔ وﻣﺎ ھﻲ إﻻ أداة ﻣﻦ
أدواﺗﮫﺎ. واﻟﻘﻀﯿﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﯿﻨﯿﺔ إﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ ﺣﻜﻤﺎ، ﻓﮫﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺨﻠﻖ أﺟﻮاء اﻻﺣﺘﻘﺎن واﻟﻼاﺳﺘﻘﺮار ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ وﻏﯿﺮ
ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ، وﻳﻌﺘﺎش ﻋﻠﯿﮫﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮوﺟﻲ اﻟﺘﻄﺮف. ﺑﮫﻜﺬا ﻓﮫﻢ ﻟﻺﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة أن ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻔﯿﺪا
وﺑﻨّﺎًء، وﻣﺤﻔﺰا ﻷن ﻳﻮازن اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﻲ اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﻲ ﺑﻤﺎ ﻳﻤﺪه ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار واﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ اﻹﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ، ﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﻟﺸﻌﻮب
وﻧﻤﺎﺋﮫﺎ.
ﻻ ﺗﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ اﻟﻘﻮى اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﯿﺔ اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺘﺪﻟﺔ أن ﺗﻮازن أو ﺗﺮدع اﻟﺪور اﻹﻳﺮاﻧﻲ اﻟﺬي ﻗﻮي ﺑﺴﺒﺐ اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﺎت
اﻷﻣﯿﺮﻛﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ، وﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﮫﺬه اﻟﺪول اﺣﺘﻮاء اﻟﺪور اﻟﺮوﺳﻲ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﺒﻨﺎء ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮرﻳﺔ. وﻗﺪ ﺻﺎر ﻟﺰاﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ
اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة إدراك ذﻟﻚ، ﻟﯿﺲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻟﺪواع أﺧﻼﻗﯿﺔ وﺗﺎرﻳﺨﯿﺔ ﻛﻮﻧﮫﺎ اﻟﻘﻮة اﻷﻋﻈﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ، وﻟﻜﻦ
أﻳﻀﺎ ﻷﺳﺒﺎب ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ اﻷﻣﯿﺮﻛﯿﺔ اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﺒﺤﺘﺔ.
ﻓﻘﺪ ﺣﻠﻔﺎء اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻢ اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺪرﺗﮫﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪور اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﻲ اﻻﻗﻠﯿﻤﻲ ﻷﻣﯿﺮﻛﺎ،4/13/13 www.alghad.com/print.html
www.alghad.com/print.html 2/2
ﻷﺳﺒﺎب ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻤﺼﺪاﻗﯿﺘﮫﻢ اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﯿﺔ وأداﺋﮫﻢ اﻟﻮطﻨﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻮاﺿﻊ اﻟﺬي ﺗﺮﻳﺪ اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة أن ﺗﻨﺄى ﺑﻨﻔﺴﮫﺎ
ﻋﻨﻪ، وﻟﻢ ﻳﺒﻖ إﻻ ﻗﻮة اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻖ وﻟﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ اﻷﻣﯿﺮﻛﯿﺔ اﻟُﻤﮫﺪدة ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪور اﻷﻣﯿﺮﻛﻲ اﻟﻤﺆﻣﻞ. اﻷﻓﻀﻞ أن
ﻳﺄﺗﻲ ذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﺮﺳﻤﯿﯿﻦ؛ ﻓﻤﺼﺪاﻗﯿﺘﮫﻢ أﻓﻀﻞ ﺣﺎﻻ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪول وﻣﻤﺜﻠﯿﮫﺎ ﺑﺨﻄﺎﺑﺎﺗﮫﻢ اﻟﻤﺰدوﺟﺔ.
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Taiwan: Making America Great Again and Taiwan’s Crucial Choice

Russia: Political Analyst Reveals the Real Reason behind US Tariffs*

Topics

Taiwan: Making America Great Again and Taiwan’s Crucial Choice

Russia: Political Analyst Reveals the Real Reason behind US Tariffs*

Poland: Meloni in the White House. Has Trump Forgotten Poland?*

Germany: US Companies in Tariff Crisis: Planning Impossible, Price Increases Necessary

Japan: US Administration Losing Credibility 3 Months into Policy of Threats

Mauritius: Could Trump Be Leading the World into Recession?

India: World in Flux: India Must See Bigger Trade Picture

Related Articles

Jordan: Bring Back ‘American Values’ First

Jordan: Gaza: a Homeland, Not a Temporary Haven

Jordan: Trump’s Dangerous Gamble

Jordan: The Worst Case Scenario before Trump Takes Office

Jordan: Jordan in Trump’s Calculus