Kerry's Plan to Achieve a Settlement

The new secretary of state, John Kerry, is trying to convince Israel and Palestine to hold a four-way meeting in Jordan, but Abu Mazen was totally against the idea, at least for now. In fact, the Palestinian president has stated during a meeting with Kerry that he will not resume any talks, neither in Jordan nor anywhere else, unless Israel takes an important step. Moreover, and in order to provoke Israel and challenge Kerry, Abbas announced that he wants to see — before anything else — the Israeli settlement maps, even though he knows that they do not exist yet.

The mini-summit in Amman is an essential stage in Kerry’s “War Book,” and there are talks about an organized plan that is supposed to get both Israel and Palestine to agree on most of the political terms that the U.S. finds are key to settlement. The last chapter in the book has not been written yet; Kerry is supposed to present his efforts to President Obama, so the latter would make the final decision: Either he finds that there is a real possibility for a settlement between the two sides and declares, in this case, a “Presidential Initiative,” or he gives up and the U.S. forgets about the whole issue.

According to sources in the U.S. Department of State, Kerry will carry on his efforts for six months, during which he will be visiting the region once every few weeks. In order to gain the support of the White House, Kerry changed the composition of the negotiating team and brought closer to him Bill Gordon, the man who replaced Dennis Ross in the National Security Council.

The mini summit is supposed to end the preparation stage and start the practical stage of talks. Choosing Jordan for the meeting site was not a mere coincidence. The U.S. actually wanted the region and the world to feel the momentum. Moreover, the U.S. has an interest in strengthening King Abdullah; the fact that this meeting takes place in his country will give Jordan a more important role in the negotiations and will serve as a keystone in the support group of moderate Arab countries.

In the meantime, and before the start of even chapter one, the first obstacle has already risen — and it is not the biggest one out there — in the form of Palestinian refusal. In an effort to overcome this obstacle, Kerry is trying to push Israel to take some confidence-building measures that could convince Abu Mazen to come to Jordan. As a matter of fact, Israel has already pledged funds to the Palestinian Authority and the U.S. is now expecting more steps, some of which will be confidential. This secret chapter includes, for example, a request that Israel restrict construction in the areas outside the settlement blocs and that Palestinians promise not to take independent initiatives to the U.N., at least not in the coming few months.

If Kerry gets through the confidence-building stage, only then will it be possible to move to the next chapter: the summit in Jordan. Efforts to reduce the gaps between the two parties regarding core issues will start then. Kerry has already begun to test ways of bringing Israel and Palestine together on security and border issues. As reported by State Department officials, the U.S. has an original plan that is not likely to be accepted by the current Israeli government. According to this plan, the two sides can reach an agreement, from this moment, on 80 percent of the territory; that’s because the Israelis agree that 94 percent of the land is almost exclusively inhabited by Palestinians. The practical meaning at this point is to turn over some parts to the Palestinians, on condition that they remain demilitarized.

Simultaneously, the “War Book” contains another chapter: “Building a support group.” That group’s role (comprised of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, the Gulf and North African countries) will be to support the PA on one hand and to take initiatives with Israel on the other hand, in the spirit of the Saudi initiative. This group will also have a great role in the general regional discourse about Syria, Iran, and stability in Jordan — issues in which Israel has great interest.