Miscalculation by Moscow and Washington

The military situation in Syria clearly indicates that an ethnic cleansing is in progress to establish an Alawite state along the coast. At the international level, it seems there is an agreement between the Americans and the Russians to share concerns! That means the continuation of the Assad regime in power is of concern for the U.S., and the possibility of grabbing power by the Nusra Front and other radical groups is of concern for the Russians.

Therefore, the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry that took place the day before yesterday resulted in the continuation of the status quo. This simply shows that the Assad regime will have “half power” and the opposition will have “half control” until further notice.

In the meeting, a call was also made for an expanded conference that will be attended by all parties, including the Assad regime and the Syrian opposition. In other words, it is a middle-ground agreement that enables Russia to recognize the opposition or enables the U.S. to recognize the continuation of the Assad regime.

The likely final scenario is that an opposition without the Nusra Front and an outgoing regime without Assad will be formed. This does not mean that the Alawites and the Baathists will be excluded from governing.

It is a game of compromise at its best between Washington and Moscow, accounting for the Assad regime and the Syrian opposition at the same time. It sounds like Lavrov and Kerry are saying to all other parties: Do whatever you want to do, fight the fight you want to fight and make any announcements that you want to make, but the final word will be ours.

The mistake here is that Lavrov and Kerry think that they are still managing the world!

No matter to what extent, the Russians’ and the Americans’ weapons are so important for the ruling regime on one hand and for the opposition on the other. They are not the decisive elements in the conflict.

Nevertheless, the roles of the U.S. and Russia are important, but the roles of Iran, Turkey, Hezbollah, Iraq, Jordan and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are also of great importance. Without prejudice to the importance of all aforementioned parties, the fighter who is carrying the gun on the operation field, whether representing the regime or the opposition, will have the final say and prevail.

We understand now from what is going on in world affairs that the U.S. cannot resolve the Syrian conflict without Russia, and it does not want Russia to make a unilateral decision. This is a period when Russia and the U.S. are sharing conflict management at the cost of others.

The most serious mistake that the coming days will reveal is that Moscow and Washington still think they are living in the Cold War era, a time when they were used to managing the world by a telephone call.

The world has changed; the new rules of the game emphasize that the party that has more influence is the party that controls the ground game!