The Hegemony in the Gulf Region

The civil war is developing into an international conflict with Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah, Iran and Russia on one side and Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel and the U.S. on the other. Can it get any worse?

The conflict is no longer just about Syria in the Middle East, but rather about its succession. Not only are the boundary marks from 1919 starting to erode, but the marks from 1945 are also falling apart because of the withering power and economy of the European colonial powers: Their only choice is to retreat.

For centuries the Ottoman Empire ruled from the Adriatic Sea to the Gulf region. However, in 1919 the “war to end all wars” was followed by peace to end all peace. This was true in Europe even more than in the Middle East where, following the Ottoman Empire’s legacy, the British proclaimed new states and the mandate of Palestine in order to secure the Suez Canal and the sea route to India militarily and politically. The French obtained Syria. The old name concealed that very conflicting nations were found there: Kurds, Sunnis, Alawites, Shiites and Christians. After World War II, local dictators, most recently the Assad clan, followed in the firm colonial rule.

The Decline of Family Dictatorships

The Arab revolutions of the last two to three years have been triggering the breakup of these states of family dictatorships. People fight for Syria now, but even more about the decision of who this Fertile Crescent will belong to in the future. The powerful Damascus would have been long-lost if the mullahs of Iran were not keeping this client alive, the only one in the Arab zone.

The Shiite Hezbollah fighting force and political veto owners in Lebanon are fighting for Assad and demanding weapons in exchange — especially missiles — so that they are able to fatally threaten the state of Israel. The Russians have promised Assad air raid defenses, but have not delivered so far because of warnings by the U.S. and Israel. The Israelis want and need to intervene before the arms reach Hezbollah. These weapons create compulsions to act.

The fight for hegemony in the Gulf region has long overshadowed the Syrian civil war, with the Russians supporting Iran on the one hand and the U.S. supporting Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel on the other.

Can it get any worse? Weapons for the rebels are double-edged. Nothing can be excluded anymore. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry know that the road to Damascus is via Moscow.

If the upcoming conference on Syria does not generate solutions, the future will look gloomy. If nothing happens, anything can happen.