US-China: What Is Happening?

What was said between Barack Obama and Xi Jinping during the two-day bilateral meetings in California last week?

In the 200-acre estate of the Californian ranch that hosted the summit, U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping participated in the longest and most informal meeting between the leaders of the two countries. It was an attempt to have a widespread and frank dialogue, which was absolutely necessary.

The possibility for the two heads of state to get to know each other personally and confront each other directly was ideal and at the same time necessary for a greater, more trustworthy relationship, aimed at overcoming the existing mutual suspicions. As I highlighted in my last post, these suspicions are not new but were fueled in the last few months by the assertive behavior of Beijing, in particular with regard to its neighbors — first among them, Japan (see my post from June 17) and Korea — and from the ever-growing, consistent U.S. strategy in the region, the pivot to Asia, which I spoke about a few weeks ago.

Nonetheless, while numerous pages were written in the papers in preparation for the event, very little has transpired as a result of the meetings. Other than the usual pleasantries on the intentions of collaboration and finding shared solutions to existing disagreements, little is known about the specific content of the matters they confronted. Why?

The answer lies in the primary intention of the summit itself. The objective was to get to know each other, take mutual measures and open up an adequate space to discuss all the predominant questions on both an international and bilateral level. In other words, no matter should have taken precedence over another, but it was necessary to create favorable conditions for future discussions. The exceptional nature of the meeting derives from the effort of both sides to sit at a roundtable of discussions and find common ground today in the hopes of preventing future disputes.

Xi arrived at the meeting conscious of his position of power, a result of the consolidation of power within his country, and he was determined to make it clear to Obama that, on the one hand, he does not believe in the necessary rivalry between the two powers and that on the other, China is not willing to renounce its strategic interests in Asia and the rest of the world (Do you recall the Chinese soft power theory?).

The Chinese president’s intention was to obtain a commitment from his American colleague to not conduct his strategy in Asia against China’s interests. Obama, for his part, was searching for reassurance on the intentions and behavior of Beijing on an international and bilateral level.

Therefore, what could they have discussed?

There are few doubts that regional Asian dynamics prevail. Beijing’s assertive behavior in the East and South China Seas has unnerved many of Washington’s strategic allies, among them Japan, the Philippines and South Korea. Obama would have looked for reassurance, well-aware of China’s need to defend its own economic and strategic interests in the zone. At the same time, Xi would have opened the possibility of a more direct and decisive role for Beijing in confronting its historic ally, North Korea, to put an end to nuclear proliferation, knowing that a conflict scenario would also be harmful to his own country.

Moreover, they would have faced the thorny questions that risk fracturing the balance of the bilateral relationship: First among them is the case of cyberespionage on U.S. databases, kept up by the Chinese with the connivance of the Chinese government — a particularly delicate matter in these difficult days for the Obama administration because of the upheavals of “Datagate.” But the list is much longer.

To find out whether Obama and Xi got along and the outcome of their meeting, we must wait. Only the next few months will indicate whether the two leaders shared the same visions and intentions, or whether the relationship will be destined to crumble.

While we wait, it is interesting to note how one week after the California summit, Obama broke free from his hesitations and, after two years, authorized sending weapons to the anti-Assad Syrian rebels, long supported by Beijing. Will this be a one off?