US and China Must Avoid 'Thucydidean Trap'

The Peloponnesian War brought previously untold tragedy to humanity, and Thucydides thus described the reason for its outbreak: The relationship between Athens and Sparta had always been one of healthy competition, but the growth and expansion of Athenian power drew the envy of Sparta and the ire of several other city-states. In the end, increased fear and misunderstanding ultimately led the two sides into armed conflict.

Today, to avoid the pitfalls of this “Thucydidean trap” between emerging and established powers, humanity must seek out and pave a path for coexistence, with lasting peace and collective prosperity. And as an important institution and platform for establishing a new great power relationship in the 21st century, the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue could be said to have created a new model, a new paradigm within international relations.

Since its inception in 2009, the U.S. and China have engaged in bilateral communications on strategic, long-term and far-reaching issues regarding the development of relations between the two countries. Agreements have been reached on 324 items since the mechanism for dialogue was established. In strategic negotiations, both sides have made headway on over 100 items, promptly moving forward with new mechanisms for exchange such as the U.S.-China Asia-Pacific Consultations, consultations on Middle Eastern affairs, a new round of the U.S.-China Strategic Security Dialogue, talks on multilateral arms control and nonproliferation, and practical military cooperation and exchange. On the track of economic dialogue, preliminary figures cite over 218 agreements reached, bringing concrete benefits to the people of both countries and lending momentum to the development of a new great power relationship between the U.S. and China. Because Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama recently found common ground at their first meeting not long ago, the fifth round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue — about to commence in Washington — will consolidate that consensus with concrete results and encourage decisions on important topics such as North Korean nuclear weapons and the state of the region, cybersecurity, climate change, trade and the economy, and the relationship between the countries’ militaries.

Judging by the amount of preparation that has preceded it, the fifth round of talks will have been worth the wait. The U.S. and China have already made new headway in strategic and economic cooperation. Recently, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has been relatively stable: There has been close interaction within the U.S.-China Working Group, and military exchange has become more frequent. On trade and the economy, the U.S. and China have already reached a preliminary consensus on over 90 items and will move for greater detail and integration during official talks. In this fifth round of dialogue, the U.S. and China will enter into negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty, coordinate financial policies and the opening of markets, and discuss policy proposals such as energy savings, cutting back on emissions, energy resource cooperation and economic cooperation on a local level. These talks will not only contribute to the economic implications of this new type of great power relationship, but will likely also have a significant impact on the direction of both countries’ economic policies in the future. The income and spending power of the Chinese people is expected to continue to climb, and ordinary people will also be able to reap the dividends of the talks.

The U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue has matured, but it cannot be denied that a divide remains between the two sides’ understanding of things relating to the term “strategic.” Several prominent U.S. politicians still hope to change the platform for dialogue into a negotiating mechanism for the U.S. to head off crises and a pressure transmitter for “resolving real issues,” demanding that China move according to U.S. wishes in a multitude of areas. Accordingly, there are questions we must tackle head-on: how to keep everything balanced domestically, hasten the democratization of and foster a scientific approach to related policies, and flexibly utilize various diplomatic tools to adequately ensure the realization of China’s national interests. When it comes down to it, we will still have to rely on ourselves for the sustainable growth of China’s economy and the stability of our society. Although the U.S. is overbearing on many issues, bilateral talks have been largely transformed from the attack-and-defense nature of earlier days, and the language of both the U.S. and China has gradually become more balanced.

Due to the lack of historical precedent, of course, the two countries are still in the process of exploring this new great power relationship. However, any positive outcome has the potential to become a fulcrum with which the fullest extent of cooperation between the two countries may be promoted, in the interests of safeguarding their own interests as well as the common good of the international community. The U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue has already demonstrated the political savviness and diplomatic finesse of both sides, and we can expect the conservative country to continue the search for a new answer to that age-old problem: the intersection of an emerging power with an established one, and the avoidance of a “Thucydidean trap.”

The author is a professor, doctoral advisor, and director of the Tsinghua University Center for U.S.-China Relations.