Obama, Better Off Safe Than Sorry

Something is brewing, although we do not know exactly what and where, says the announcement sent from Washington.

Twenty-one U.S. embassies in the Middle East and North Africa are closed for safety reasons, 19 of which will stay closed over the next week. The U.S. Department of State advises Americans who are traveling abroad to stay alert and register on government websites, so that they may easily be found if needed. This is the greatest alert of its kind in history.

Congressmen have granted interviews to main TV stations, but they speak an Aesopian language. Not much is known so far: We know only that the alert has something to do with a conspiracy by a Yemeni al-Qaida cell.

“This is the most serious threat that I’ve seen in the last several years,” Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., a member of the Senate Committee on Intelligence, told NBC.

“We don’t know where the location is … but what we have heard is some specifics on what’s intended to be done and some individuals who are making plans … whether they’re going to be suicide deaths that are used or whether they’re planning on vehicle-born bombs … we don’t know. but we’re hearing some kind of that same chatter … we heard pre-9/11 … ”

“There’s very little doubt, if any, that something serious is being planned,” Rep. Peter King, R-Ny., vice chairman of the Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence in the House of Representatives, told CNN. “I’ve been getting briefed fairly regularly over the last seven or eight years at least and also pretty heavily before then and this is the most specific I’ve seen.”

Warnings of this kind — “we are threatened by something dangerous, but we do not know what” — are risky because in the short term they can trigger a psychosis of fear. If they are not confirmed, in the long run, they can lead to indifference to any terrorist alerts. Why did Obama’s government decide to take that risk, then?

Left-wing conspiracy theorists will probably suspect some self-promotion campaign for the National Security Agency, the U.S. electronic intelligence agency, which in the past few weeks has not received good press. After revelations from Edward Snowden, Americans woke up in the world of Big Brother, where their phone calls, e-mails, chat messages, and even Google searches may be monitored.

Since the NSA can overhear conversations between terrorists and uncover conspiracies, it must be OK — this is the line of reasoning, to which the self-promotion could lead. And although theoretically speaking, it is easy to imagine, in practice it is impossible because in Washington security issues are dealt with in deadly earnest.

Rather, it is about taking extra precautions.

In recent years, America has made three major blunders:

– Sept. 11, 2001: Terrorists from Afghanistan discussed the planned attack over the phone, and even though Americans had it recorded, they did not consider it a threat until after the fact.

– Boston marathon bombing: The FBI was warned by Russia that Tamerlan Tsarnaev, one of the Chechen brothers, maintained contact with radicals.

– 2012 Benghazi attack: Last year, before the anniversary of 9/11, there were anti-American protests in the Middle East, but the U.S. ambassador to Libya unnecessarily went to Benghazi, where he was killed; his requests to strengthen security were rejected.

After a series like this, and taking into consideration recent accusations of misusing surveillance methods, U.S. secret and public services cannot afford yet another blunder.