Sino-US East Asia Rivalry Will Maintain Tension

It may be said that the U.S.-China relationship constitutes the most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century. In 2013, this relationship experienced large transformations — economically, on international cooperation and over military strategy contentions. China Review News interviewed Shi Yinrong, State Department adviser and Professor at Renmin University’s School of International Relations, on these interrelated issues.

Shi Yinrong confirms that in 2013, China and the U.S. made headway on economic cooperation but also points out that China’s proposed “new model for world power relations” did not become the core concept for Sino-U.S. relations. In 2014, China will devote itself to strengthening this single concept, though the U.S. will not be so quick to agree. In 2013, the U.S. and China initiated international cooperation over Syria, the Korean Peninsula and Iran. This momentum will carry over into 2014. However, China and America will struggle for power in East Asia and continue their strategic opposition over the Western Pacific island chain, bringing profound changes this year.

Shi Yinrong believes that in 2013, Sino-U.S. economic cooperation advanced considerably. In spite of that, some clashes and disputes may still emerge over the details of cooperation. Still, in principle, America relaxed limitations on Chinese capital entering the U.S. market, and China has made similar promises for its actions toward the U.S. Shi Yinrong believes that, after calm consideration and the long-term disputes of 2011 to 2012, both sides’ leaders have resolved to conform to the overall interests of both nations.

In 2013, Sino-U.S. international cooperation progressed greatly. The common desire to maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula became the starting point for Sino-U.S. cooperation, with joint efforts to contain the damage of the Kim Jong Un regime on the Korean Peninsula’s fragile diplomatic balance. As for the Syria issue, after Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to destroy chemical weapons, they met with China’s approval. China and the U.S. also cooperated on the Iranian nuclear issue.

In 2013, Xi Jinping and Barack Obama carried out their “manor talks.” Xi Jinping expressed that “the Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate China and the U.S.,” and proposed that a “new model for world power relations” become the core of Sino-U.S. relations. Shi Yinrong believes that America never explicitly responded to this “new world power ideology” in the period of time since it was proposed in June 2013. But after China threw out its “East China Sea air defense identification zone,” the U.S. began to oppose this ideology.

Shi Yinrong believes that in 2014, China will continue to strive for the formation of a “new model for world power relations.” But the chances of America acknowledging this concept in 2014 are not very good; America is absolutely unwilling to see another world power on an equal footing with itself, which would imply that some of America’s supremacy as the world’s only superpower is fading away.

As for their rivalry in East Asia, China and America will maintain a certain level of tension. Judging from the current perspective, this kind of antagonistic tension will not find a clear resolution in 2014. Shi Yinrong believes that this contest of strength will continue, while estimating that this year there will be a profound change. On one hand, with a sustained growth in national power, China will inevitably seek a more important role in East Asia and aim to break through the first island chain in the Western Pacific. On the other hand, America will not leave Asia; it will still use Japan to play its part in containing China. Although in military “rebalancing” the United States is not necessarily “turning things around,” it still will make economic and security trouble for China through its surrounding nations.

Therefore, in 2014, China must exert more effort on diplomacy with its neighbors. Shi Yinrong says that China must continue to “improve by its neighbors, partner with its neighbors, preserve neighborly relations, pacify its neighbors, enrich its neighbors,” and by this strategy “soften weakness.” Yet, while there may be no concessions of territorial rights, right now, “strength [is] already strong enough. It cannot be made stronger.”

As for the role of Japan in Sino-U.S. relations, Shi Yinrong believes that America employs a strategy of realism considering its world power status. America’s intention to contain China will not experience any change, so the alliance between America and Japan will continue. Based on the presupposition that Japan will continue leaning right, the U.S. is not worried about the revival of Japanese militarism, but rather that Japan’s excessive rightism will impede its relations with South Korea as well as its rebalancing strategy for the Asia-Pacific region. Concerning this matter, there is a huge difference in the worries of the U.S., China and South Korea. Therefore, to a large extent, America will still lend unwarranted support to Japan.

Shi Yinrong believes that the China-Taiwan factor in Sino-U.S. relations has already declined significantly. Current China-Taiwan relations have improved quite obviously when compared with 2005. Therefore, China-Taiwan issues will not have any large effect on Sino-U.S. relations within the coming year.

As for Taiwan’s eagerness to join the America-dominated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Shi Yinrong believes that the mainland need not be so eager to join. Instead it should develop a very close relationship with the TPP through cooperative methods. At the same time, China should strengthen “subregional” cooperation, such as in the Mekong River Delta, India, Japan and Korea, and deal with economic cooperation organizations with an open mind.

Shi Yinrong expects that America must make a strategic decision on the rise of China by approximately 2020. If China goes on according to its current momentum, its economic power will be further developed and its armaments will continue to advance. When the time comes that America accepts China’s position as a world power, there is a fair chance that the U.S. will grant a mutual strategic space to adapt to China’s strength, but on the other hand, a showdown between China and the U.S. cannot be completely ruled out.